CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten says President Donald Trump’s 31-point net approval deficit is identical to George W. Bush’s at this point before the 2006 midterms, when Republicans lost control of both the House and Senate.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: It’s Election Day across America with three states holding key primaries, including the state Donald Trump calls home, Florida. Today’s races are testing President Trump’s grip on the Republican Party there, while his approval rating is at a very low level, the lowest of his presidency. CNN’s Harry Enten, looking at all the numbers. How low is it? HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: You know, if this were a game of limbo, President Trump would be winning. Unfortunately, this is the game a presidential popularity. And he is reaching record lows yet again. He is losing. Just take a look here. OK, Trump net approval hits a term two low. Look at this, 31 points underwater, 31 points underwater according to Ipsos, the Reuters-Ipsos poll. Look where he was at the beginning of term number two. He was at plus six points. So, he is down, what is that, the math quickly with me, 37 points from where he was at the beginning of his second presidency. You know, President Trump was unpopular going into the midterms during his first presidency, but not anywhere as unpopular as this. He was 12 points underwater. So, he is doing versus where he was at term number one at this point, he is doing, what is the math here quickly, he is doing 19 points worse than he was doing in term number one at this point. And, of course, those midterms were quite disastrous for the Republican Party. So, you look at these numbers and you just go, oy vey if you’re a Republican. SIDNER: All right, independents have a big role to play always in elections. Give us some sense of where they stand, because there is still a lot of the party that supports Donald Trump. ENTEN: Yes. OK. So, you know what, Republicans still, in large part, support Donald Trump, but is independents who are the name of the game. They are the driver in elections. And just look at why these numbers are falling the way that they are. It is because of independents. Look at these drops. I mean, Trump’s net approval rating among independents, term two, he’s 47 points underwater now, 47 points underwater. He was at minus one point at the beginning of his presidency, basically treading water, right? So, what is that? That’s a 46-point drop. So, you see that drop of, what, 31 points from where he was at the beginning of his presidency, or 37 points from where he was at the beginning of his presidency, among the overall electorate. But that’s nothing compared to this 46 point drop among independents. And look at — compare that to where he was at this point in term number one, before those midterms. Again, he was underwater then, but he was just ten points underwater then. Now he’s 47 points underwater. So, that’s a drop of, what, 37 points? So, this has been the problem with President Trump’s second term according to the public, which is, he is going and placating the base, but leaving the center of the electorate behind. But you know what, you have to win the center of the electorate in order to maintain your popularity, in order for Republicans to win in these midterm elections. But independents are saying, you know what, we don’t like what’s going on. See you later. SIDNER: Yes. And the big question is, do they show up and vote for a Democrat or do they not show up? You — those are always the questions that you have to ask. ENTEN: Those are questions. SIDNER: I do want to ask you about what this might mean historically when you look at these abysmal numbers for the president and his approval rating, the lowest of his presidency, what it might mean for the midterms. ENTEN: Yes, what might it mean for the midterms? I was teasing 2018, but you have to go further back in history to really find the true analog in my mind. And it’s George W. Bush. Look at this. Presidential net approval rating according to Ipsos at this point pre-midterm. Look at this, Trump 31 points underwater, Bush was also 31 points underwater, George W. Bush, at this point before the 2006 midterm. Republicans lost not just the House, but the United States Senate as well. And if these numbers hold and this historical analogy holds, Democrats will have a very happy election night and election week afterwards indeed. SIDNER: There is a lot of tricky things going on, though, within the Democratic Party as well. So, we will have to see what happens when it happens. And there are primaries today. We should find out tonight, hopefully.

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