CNN data analyst Harry Enten examines Florida’s dramatic shift to the right, arguing that the once-competitive swing state is now firmly a red state.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN: This past week on Tuesday, Florida held its primary and there was a big surprise in the Senate, a Democratic primary for that special Senate seat, and that was that Angie Nixon won that primary, and it was a surprise because she was going up against Alex Vindman, who is far better known nationally, but also the fact that Angie Nixon is a Democratic Socialist. And you know what, I think Republicans in Florida are saying, thank you so much, thank you so much, because that has basically, that nomination has taken that race off the board. Just take a look at this. Okay, the Florida special Senate race ratings, on Monday, you take a look at the average of all these race ratings, it was likely Republican. Now it is solidly Republican, Republican chances going up through the roof in Florida. But the truth is, is that Republicans have had a pretty gosh darn good run in Florida, and I’m not quite sure it necessarily mattered too much who was going to be nominated because, you know, I remember when Florida was a swing state that Democrats would compete in, right? Barack Obama won it in 2008, in 2012, Hillary Clinton was quite competitive there in 2016. It’s no longer a swing state. It’s no longer a purple state. It’s a red state now, and you can see it right here. Okay, the Florida party registration edge, you know, you go back to 2016, when Hillary Clinton was quite competitive, Democrats led in party registration in Florida by 3 points. Look at where we are now though, and look at where we are in 2024. In 2024, by the time that Donald Trump was easily winning another term in the White House in Florida, winning that state, look at this, it was Republican plus 8. Now it is Republican plus 11 points. What a massive change from where we were in 2016 when Democrats had the party registration edge in Florida. So that Florida Senate race moving more towards the right in the Republican direction, that’s just part of a larger trend. But Florida Senate is not the only place where Republicans are probably going to do well in federal elections come this November. You can see it in the House ratings as well. Now there was a redistricting that happened in Florida, but it’s just part of, again, a larger trend of Republicans continuously doing well in Florida and actually doing better over time. Take a look here, U.S. House seats in Florida, GOP pickups this year, we’re talking about two to three seats possible. Two to three seats possible, again, aided by redistricting, but no doubt part of a larger trend of Florida moving further and further to the right. Now here’s the real problem though with Florida moving further and further to the right, right? We’re not just talking about a state like Wyoming that has only three electoral votes. Florida is becoming a more populous state. It is becoming one that has increasing power in politics. Florida electoral votes, you know, you go back to the 1990s when Bill Clinton was in fact winning there in 1996, right? Look at that, it had 25 electoral votes. You go to the 2000s, 27 electoral votes. You go to the 2010s, 29 electoral votes. The 2020, 30. And now as we look forward to the 2030s, the projection is something like 32 electoral votes. If you’re Democrats, you don’t want to be losing ground in Florida, but you’re doing exactly that. This is great news for Republicans. They are gaining ground in a state that they really can put into their electoral column and make their chances of winning presidential elections far better. The Florida special Senate race, just more emblematic of a state that is racing to the right.

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