CNN data guru Harry Enten analyzes the latest favorability and midterm polls on Tuesday’s “CNN News Central” and said it would not be surprising if the Republicans maintained control of the House.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: So, from tariffs to immigration crackdowns, as the topic was just there, President Trump has spent the first eight months of his presidency making good on some of his campaign promises. So, what do voters think about it, and how could this impact midterm elections — the midterm elections to come? Harry Enten is crunching the numbers on this one. He’s here with us now. Harry, it’s been almost one year since the election. How are voters feeling right now about the president? HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: You know, sometimes I think it’s worth taking that 35,000 vote view. And as far as the American people are concerned, Trump could be better known as steady Eddie. What are we talking about here? Well, why don’t we take a look here. Favorable view of Donald Trump. You know, you go back to October of 2024, 44 percent of the American public viewed him favorably. Now, despite everything, look at this, 43 percent, which is well within the margin of error of that 44 percent. And here’s the thing to keep in mind. This was good enough to get Trump reelected back in 2024. And Donald Trump is basically at the same point here right now, which I think would surprise a lot of folks, especially a lot of folks on the left, who very much disagree with a lot of what Donald Trump has done. BOLDUAN: Well, what do you see is underneath that and driving that? Why is he basically the same? ENTEN: OK. You know, to quote the esteemed scholar (ph), Dennis Green, the former head coach in the National Football League, Donald Trump is who the voters thought he was. What are we talking about here? Well, is Trump doing what he promised in the 2024 campaign? Yes, 52 percent, the majority of Americans say that Donald Trump is doing what he promised, compared to 48 percent who said no. So, what essentially is going on here is the voters expected all of this from Donald Trump, the majority did, and that is why his favorable rating, simply put, has not really moved all that much compared to where it was a year ago. Trump is basically doing what the American people thought that he was going to do. Indeed, if you look at the numbers, Trump has basically the steadiest favorable rating this much through a presidency of any president on record. And it’s basically where he was a year ago. Good enough to get him reelected. BOLDUAN: So, then what is — what are you seeing as how this is impacting midterms? ENTEN: Yes. OK. So, one of the questions we basically had as we’ve gone on through the numbers, right, is that Democrats have not been able to run away with it. And now we know it’s basically because Donald Trump is where he thought he was, which was good enough for the Republicans to maintain control of the House last time around. Look at this, the race for Congress, Dems versus Republican margin. You look at “The New York Times” poll, it was tied a year ago at this point. Now it’s Democrats plus two, within the margin of error. Look at Yahoo/YouGov. It was plus three Democrats at this point a year ago. Now it’s plus four. Maybe the Democrats have gained a little bit, but in reality, Kate, what we’re really seeing is that the American public is pretty much steady. They are basically where they were a year ago at this point. Maybe Democrats can take control of the House where the polling is right now, but maybe not, because the bottom line is, we’ve seen numbers fairly similar to what we have right now. We had it a year ago, and it was not good enough for Democrats to take control. The bottom line is this, as long as Donald Trump is where he is, Republicans will, in fact, remain competitive. If they, in fact, gain a little bit, it really would not be that surprising to me if Republicans were able to maintain control of the House, especially given their redistricting efforts in many of those states. BOLDUAN: Fascinating. It’s a — it’s a really good look, Harry. Thank you so much. ENTEN: Thank you, Kate.

RealClearPolitics Videos