CNN data analyst Harry Enten looks at a new CBS News/YouGov poll of Latino voters. He also looked at heavily Latino Union City, New Jersey, where Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill this month outperformed the 2024 Kamala Harris campaign by 52 points.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN: One of the big shifts in 2024 from 2020 was that shift towards Donald Trump, right? Immigration played a key role in that. I want to start off with Latinos on Trump and immigration. You know, back a year ago, what did we see on the issue of immigration? Latino voters trusted Kamala Harris more than Donald Trump, but by just 2 points – 12. Look now at Donald Trump’s net approval rating on immigration among Latinos. He is 38 points underwater. That is a 36-point shift, essentially, from where we were a year ago on immigration. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were basically tied on the issue of immigration, and now, on the issue of immigration, Latinos despise, hate Donald Trump. Thirty-eight points underwater – in their mind, he is doing something absolutely wrong when it comes to immigration. What about the Latino vote overall? All right, how do Latinos feel about Donald Trump overall? Let’s take a look here. This, I think, sort of gives the game away. Yeah. Oh my goodness. I mean, that is the phrase of the day. Trump’s net approval rating among Latinos: in early February, again, he was just 2 points underwater. Look at where he is now – late October – minus 34 points. Thirty-four points underwater, a shift of 32 points over the course of this year. I should point out this is the CBS News/YouGov poll, but I was looking at the average of polls. I was looking at our own poll. Very similar shift. 2025: 30-point shifts on the net approval rating away from Donald Trump among Latinos overall. Again, whatever Donald Trump is doing in office, in the minds of Latinos, it is not working. They have turned against him in massive, massive numbers. What did we learn from the 2025 elections? The highest Latino-percentage area in both New Jersey and Virginia: New Jersey, it was Union City. Look at this – 2024 president, 2025 governorship. There was a 52- I’m laughing because you never see any numbers like this – a 52-point shift towards Mikie Sherrill from how Kamala Harris did on the margin. Mikie Sherrill ran away with this. Kamala Harris did win that vote, but by a small margin. Mikie Sherrill did 52 points better. How about in Virginia? Manassas. Look at that – a 22-point shift towards Abigail Spanberger from how Kamala Harris did back in 2024. We saw huge Latino shifts in both New Jersey and Virginia. The idea that what happens to Donald Trump won’t impact down-ballot – if you’re a Republican, and you believe that, that is fantasy land. What is happening to Donald Trump absolutely impacted what happened down-ballot. Part of it is turnout, but part of it is persuasion. Latinos running away from Republicans, running to the Democrats. A big reversion to the mean – Latinos back in the Democratic camp in 2025 in a way they, simply put, were not in 2024. And it’s because of Donald John Trump. Look, a lot can change between now and next November of 2026, but if you start sort of extrapolating this and overlaying it on places like Texas – yes, we’re going to be having lots of discussion about Texas – that redistricting may not work out the way that a lot of Texas Republicans and Donald Trump hoped it would. Harriet, great to see you. Nice to see you.

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