RCP co-founder Tom Bevan questioned reports that all or most of Trump’s supporters agree with starting a war in Iran, starting with the resignation of National Counterintelligence Director Joe Kent Thursday on the RCP podcast:

TOM BEVAN, REALCLEARPOLITICS: On the record, Karoline Leavitt, Taylor Budowich-they’ve all trashed Joe Kent as he’s headed out the door. So that’s all part of the playbook. Yeah, the president said this about him. He said, I always thought he was weak on security, very weak on security. It’s a good thing he’s out. And Karoline Leavitt said, The absurd allegation that President Trump made this decision based on the influence of others, even foreign countries, is both insulting and laughable. … PHIL WEGMANN: What I’ve heard from numerous sources is that a lot of these anti-interventionists, they’re overrepresented, that they are a vocal but small minority, and that on the way out the door, they can kick up a lot of dust. But have they actually changed the direction of the party? I don’t think so. I mean, the polling would suggest that Republicans are on board with this conflict, that they still trust Trump, and that’s not going to change. And I think perhaps what we’re seeing is, while Donald Trump is the ultimate authority on what MAGA means, there are a lot of people who read in their own interpretations. And certainly, when Trump was campaigning with Kent in 2024, urging voters to get out and support him because they were going to stop World War III, Kent was of the opinion that MAGA meant no new wars. TOM BEVAN: In that sense, he’s been the consistent one. First of all, I think the polling is bullsh-t. I don’t buy this idea that 100% of MAGA is on board. I mean, that’s just not true. It’s whether you think it’s 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% who are opposed to this war, and opposed to it seriously, that there is a group out there. Joe Kent’s part of it, Tucker and others, and they have big audiences. So I don’t believe the polling, number one. But Joe Kent is almost like a Rorschach test. Some people-I would say the MAGA folks-are like, he’s absolutely adhering to MAGA principles. And the other folks now, including the administration, but also Mark Levin and those folks, are like, hey, this guy’s a crank. I mean, they’re just disparaging him in the most unbelievable terms. So I guess how you feel about Joe Kent depends on where you sit on the political spectrum and what you think of this war. And I also, by the way, Phil, I know Trump likes to say, I am MAGA and whatever I say is MAGA, and it’s like, okay, I don’t know. I mean, I’m not sure that that is as true as he thinks it is. He famously said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, and there’s probably a degree of truth to that. He does have a very strong following. But at the same time, he has agitated his base. He did it a little bit on the Epstein files and the way they handled that, but I think this is another-there’s a cumulative effect that’s going on here. And this was one of his core campaign promises, and he has now broken it. I think there are, again, maybe there’s 10% or 15% of folks who are willing to go along with Trump in the hopes that this thing is wrapped up quickly and it’s a clean success and all that, but if this drags on for two or three months, you’re going to see that disapproval rating among Republicans rise. … If the bottom falls out in November, if this thing really goes sideways, and Republicans are already probably going to lose the House, but if they lose the Senate too, and it’s just Trump battling Democrats, I think that’s going to be a very serious blow to Trump and Trumpism. He will be a complete lame duck for the next two years, and the battle to replace him starts the day after those elections, regardless of what happens. As you said, that will be a serious conversation. I think that’s the worst-case scenario for him.

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