CNN data analyst Harry Enten presents polls showing Sen. John Fetterman’s net favorability among Pennsylvania Democrats has dropped from +68 to -40.

JOHN BERMAN: So, Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin is going to get a full Senate vote to see if he will be confirmed as the new Secretary of Homeland Security. He only got out of committee because of this man, Democratic Senator John Fetterman. He was the deciding vote to pass this nomination through committee. If he voted no, it would not have happened. So, how is that sitting with fellow Democrats? Or more accurately, how is John Fetterman sitting with fellow Democrats? With us now, CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten. So, Fetterman, again, these polls are from before this decision was. HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yeah. BERMAN: But how is Fetterman doing among Pennsylvania Democrats right now? ENTEN: Yeah, it’s part of a larger story, Mr. Berman. I would just say that John Fetterman is doing as well with Pennsylvania Democrats as the New York Giants are as liked in the state of Pennsylvania or the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. I mean, just look at this. Among Pennsylvania Democrats, a net approval of Fetterman. Back in 2023, he was a Democrat liberal darling. He was at plus 68 points. Look at how low he has fallen down to negative 40 points. He’s down there with the Titanic among Democrats in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. And, you know, to put a comparison point on, you know, we always talk about how Chuck Schumer is not well liked by the Democratic base nationwide. Chuck Schumer has a net popularity rating of about minus two points. He is 38 points more popular than John Fetterman is with Pennsylvania Democrats. And I was also looking at Kyrsten Sinema, who, of course, ended up leaving the Democratic Party in Arizona. She was considerably more popular just before she shifted over than John Fetterman is at minus 40 points. BERMAN: Is this a 108-point swing? ENTEN: This is a 108-point — BERMAN: OK. ENTEN: — swing. Very good mathematics here. This is — I mean — BERMAN: I was honestly thinking, is that even possible? All right. How does this compare to other — he faces a primary. If he wants to run again, you know, he faces an election in two years if he runs in a Democratic primary. How have senators who lost their primaries, how does their whole situation compare to this? ENTEN: I would just know John was like off on the screen going, what, what? Wait a minute. Wait a minute, 108 points. You never see anything like that. But my goodness gracious. I mean, just take a look here. OK, 2,000 senators own party net ratings about when they lost a primary. Bob Smith, plus 15. Arlen Specter, plus 13. Of course, he switched parties to Democrats. It didn’t work for him from a Republican. Plus six, Joe Liberman. Dick Lugar was at zero points. Lisa Murkowski was at minus 15 points. All of these were considerably more popular than John Fetterman is right now at minus 40 points. He is below the lowest, the ones who actually got beat in a primary. There is no historical analog to this. That is how unpopular John Fetterman is with Pennsylvania Democrats. There is basically no doubt in my mind that if Fetterman decides to run for re-election as a Democrat, he will face a primary challenge and it will be a very competitive one. BERMAN: So, Fetterman says that Democrats are suffering from what he calls Trump Derangement Syndrome. Is that a compelling argument to make among the voters there? ENTEN: No, no. I mean, that is the last thing that Democrats want to hear. I mean, look at this. Lowest approval among Dems at this point in term two. Donald Trump has just a four-point, four-point approval rating. George W. Bush was not well liked, was at 10 percent. Richard Nixon was at 11 percent. Donald Trump is the lowest of the low on this point. The bottom line is this. John Fetterman, when you look — when you look at his net popularity rating at minus 40 points, he is on a completely other planet from Chuck Schumer who is also unpopular and he is on a different galaxy entirely from other incumbents who actually lost re-election far less popular than them. BERMAN: We set it up by talking about his vote to push Markwayne Mullin through committee. How likely do the prediction markets think Markwayne Mullin is to get confirmed? ENTEN: Yeah, John Fetterman basically was the bow on this because just take a look here. OK, Chance Mullin is confirmed as DHS secretary and this is before May of 2026. Look at this, a 98 percent chance according to the Cal State prediction market. John Fetterman is the big reason why Markwayne Mullin is going to get confirmed as DHS Secretary. Another reason for Democrats who already didn’t like him to dislike him even more. BERMAN: Harry Enten, thank you very much for that.

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