Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command, told CBS’s “Face The Nation” that after years of preparation, after one month, the campaign against Iran is “further along than we would have expected to be at this point, in all the simulations that I’ve seen.” “This is not back-of-the-envelope calculations. These are things we’ve been working on for many years,” he said. “I believe that they will break. I believe that they will come to terms,” he said. “I’ll be honest with you. I’ve simulated this many years in many positions at Central Command; we’re a little further along than we would have expected to be at this point in all the simulations that I’ve seen.” “This is part of a plan that’s been in existence for many years,” he said. “What we’re doing right now is we’re reducing Iranian ability to target ships in the strait through their short range missiles, their drones and other activities.” “We do that by maintaining air superiority over southern Iran on a 24/7 basis, looking for where these missiles are and striking them relentlessly. Once we reduce those to a very low level, then you’ll be able to go in, if necessary, sweep for mines,” McKenzie said. “I’m not certain they put mines in the water yet. I predict eventually they will. It’s their nature, but we have the ability to do this.” “The U.S. military thinks of a lot of things. We certainly have thought of the Strait of Hormuz out of Kharg Island and all those islands on the southern littoral of Iran.” “For many years, we’ve considered options along the southern coast of Iran, seizing islands, seizing small bases, typically raids,” he explained. “A raid is an operation with a planned withdrawal. You’re not going to stay. But some of those islands you could seize and hold, that would have a couple effects.” “First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran, and would give us great weight in negotiations.” “The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about. If you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is you’re not destroying it. You’re retaining it for further use by the global economy and possibly for return to Iran under certain conditions,” he said. “I believe eventually they’ll make a deal. But we need to keep the pressure up. We need to continue to press them very hard, because that is, in fact, the only thing they will respond to.” Here’s the full inrterview:

MARGARET BRENNAN: One of the things that Iran had been waiting to do was activate its militias, or the militias it supports in Yemen, the Houthis, over the weekend, they jumped into the fight and fired on Israel. Do you think that this is a game-changer, given that they could not just disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, but another passageway through the Red Sea? GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: Margaret, I don’t think it will be a game-changer. Their ability to attack Israel is quite limited. Yes, they will have the ability to further stop slow traffic through the Bab el Mandeb, going up into the Suez Canal. We have the ability to go down there and prevent that. It will require additional resources, but we have those resources, and we can certainly do it if that becomes necessary. MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, the President has made clear that he needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. His language has been contradictory on some of these points as to who’s going to do it and when. What’s the military reality of making it passable? GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: We’re on our way to doing that now. This is part of a plan that’s been in existence for many years. What we’re doing right now is we’re reducing Iranian ability to target ships in the strait through their short range missiles, their drones and other activities. We do that by maintaining air superiority over southern Iran on a 24/7 basis, looking for where these missiles are and striking them relentlessly. Once we reduce those to a very low level, then you’ll be able to go in, if necessary, sweep for mines. I’m not certain they put mines in the water yet. I predict eventually they will. It’s their nature, but we have the ability to do this. We’re on, we’re on plan. I’ll be honest with you. I’ve simulated this many years in many positions at Central Command; we’re a little further along than we would have expected to be at this point in all the simulations that I’ve seen. MARGARET BRENNAN: I’m going to guess in your simulations, you looked at what would happen to the Strait of Hormuz, even though the President said no one ever thought of it, you thought of it, didn’t you? GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: The U.S. military thinks of a lot of things. We certainly have thought of the Strait of Hormuz out of Kharg Island. Think of all those islands on the southern littoral of Iran. … The primary goal of Iranian statecraft is the survival of the regime. Back in the late 1980s, they signed a truce with Iraq when things were going very bad for Iran. In Iranian history, it is known as “drinking from the poison chalice.” I believe that they will break. I believe that they will come to terms. And it may be an imperfect solution, but I think it would be one that would include opening the Strait of Hormuz, possibly some deal on the missiles, on the missile systems, the nuclear program is certainly a possibility, but I believe eventually they’ll make a deal. But we need to keep the pressure up. We need to continue to press them very hard, because that is, in fact, the only thing they will respond to. MARGARET BRENNAN: So the President had posted he’s postponed the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the Iranian government asking for it. He says he shifted that to April 6 at 8pm. We also hear from the Secretary of State that he is talking to the allies about a post-conflict necessity of having other countries help to essentially police the Strait. And he said that you will need tankers to have military escorts. So this doesn’t sound like this is a short-term project. This sounds like even if combat ends, we’re going to be talking about a military presence in the region for some time. Am I wrong? GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: You could be right. Let’s see what happens.There are two ways the Strait of Hormuz can be opened. It can be opened if the Iranians negotiate with us to open it. And of course, that’s the desired solution. The other solution would be, if they don’t, and they decide to fight, we can open the strait under that condition too. The second condition is obviously a lot more intensive in terms of ships and equipment that would have to bring into the region, and yes, help from our allies would certainly be, would be very useful in that case. We have the ability to open the Strait of Hormuz under any condition that the Iranians choose to exist under. MARGARET BRENNAN: Does it appear to you that one of the contingencies that the White House is planning for, given that they’re continuing to move troops into the region, and you have these Marines who are moving into the area as well. Are they preparing for a ground troop presence? And what does that look like? GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: For many years, we’ve considered options along the southern coast of Iran, seizing islands, seizing small bases, typically raids. And a raid is an operation with a planned withdrawal. You’re not going to stay. But some of those islands you could seize and hold, that would have a couple effects. First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran, and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about. If you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is you’re not destroying it. You’re retaining it for further use by the global economy and possibly for return to Iran under certain conditions. So all of these things,these are not back-of-the-envelope calculations. These are things we’ve been working on for many years, and I think we’re right to threaten the entire littoral to hold all these options out there. And I think the President’s message is spot on when he talks about all these alternatives. MARGARET BRENNAN: But can he achieve his goals without ground troops, which is what the Secretary of State says. And how does this end? How do you call this a success? GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: Sure, I think a success looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open. We get some kind of deal on the ballistic missile program, some kind of deal on the nuclear program. That’s probably about as much as you could hope for. But I think they’re very discreet things that, for me, at least from an operational military perspective, would be, would look like victory. I believe all of those things are actually within our grasp. We just need to continue. Iran will ultimately respond to the use of force. They know and understand it, perhaps better than we have, we have in the past. This administration is willing to use force. Other administrations have been thoroughly deterred by Iran. President Trump is not deterred by Iran.
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