CNN data analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday said the chance of a Democratic blowout in the midterm elections is “way, way down,” and the race is more of a tossup. “According to my estimate, what they need for control with redistricting in terms of the national popular vote is somewhere of a win between three and four points,” Enten said. “That’s CNN’s current poll with no clear leader? It’s a three-point advantage. If this were in fact the actual result come election day, the race for Congress, the race for the House would be basically a toss-up.” “Which party is trusted more on the economy? It’s a tie among registered voters. Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn’t make Democrats popular. And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden it is a dead heat,” Enten told CNN anchor John Berman.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: A new CNN poll finds that 73 percent of Americans describe economic conditions in the country as poor. With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. So, with a poll showing the president facing 70 percent disapproval on the economy, surely that same poll would show Democrats with a big advantage in the race for Congress. HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: You would think. But I think this poll serves as a big-time reality check for Democrats. And that is, it ain’t over yet, especially with the redistricting when we look ahead to the 2026 race for Congress. You would have thought that the Democrats’ lead would expand on the generic congressional ballot. It didn’t happen. Look, in March, Democrats were up by six points. Look at this now. Democrats are up by three points. And I want you to note the yellow lettering, no clear leader. It is within the margin of error. So, despite all of the talk about Donald Trump’s unpopularity, the fact is, Republicans very much remain in the game when it comes to the congressional midterms, which are occurring in, what, six or seven months at this point? BERMAN: Yes. And don’t call me Shirley. So, a lead — ENTEN: Ah. BERMAN: A lead of three points in the generic ballot test here. Does that get the job done? ENTEN: No. No. It might not actually get the job done. And I love any reference to “Airplane,” I will say, and Leslie Nielsen. Look at this. OK, take a look here. Democrats in the national House vote margin. According to my estimate, what they need for control with redistricting in terms of the national popular vote is somewhere of a win between three and four points. What’s CNN’s current poll with no clear leader? It’s a three-point advantage. If this were in fact the actual result come election day, the race for Congress, the race for the House would be basically a toss-up. And that is why the redistricting efforts that have been happening are so important. Because before the redistricting happened, Democrats essentially just needed to win the national House popular vote in order to win control of the House of Representatives. But now, with the redistricting, their ladder, they have to climb ever higher. And a three-point win may very well not do it. This is well within the realm of possibilities. It could be Democrats take back the House, you know, if Democrats outperform the CNN poll by a few points they take it back, but they could underperform as well. And that would be big time trouble. As I said at the start here, this game is most certainly not over. Republicans very much in the race for the House of Representatives are in that game. BERMAN: All right, and I was saying, you know, the president’s approval on the economy. The president is just 30 percent, 70 percent disapproval. Those are, I think, the worst numbers he has ever had. But if his numbers are so bad then, why aren’t Democrats benefiting? ENTEN: Yes, that’s exactly it, Johnny B. Look, we talk about, you know, economic approval rating for the president. We talk about the net approval rating. Among registered voters, if we look among registered voters, the net approval rating, he’s 36 points under water. You go, there’s no way. There’s no way Republicans could possibly hold on to the House. But look at this, which party is trusted more on the economy? It’s a tie among registered voters. Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn’t make Democrats popular. And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden it is a dead heat. BERMAN: Oftentimes Republicans enjoy an advantage on the economy, though, so tide may not be great for them, but still a huge disparity there between these two numbers. All right, we’re talking about Democrats’ chances, maybe not as big as they were a few weeks ago. You know, what are the chances — a few weeks ago I think we were saying Republicans, they could get blown out. ENTEN: Yes, exactly right. And that’s, I think, the other thing. Even if Republicans don’t hold on to Congress, look, the chance of a blowout, that has shrunk considerably. Look at the Kalshi prediction market. Chance that the GOP wins under 193 seats. You need 218 for control in the 2026 midterms. A month ago it was a 48 percent chance they won under 193 seats. Now it’s just 19 percent. So basically, Republicans have shifted the playing field. They’re in the game. And the chance of a Democratic blowout, that is way, way down. BERMAN: A much different environment today than it was just a few weeks ago. Harry Enten, thank you very much.

RealClearPolitics Videos