Sean Trende and Josh Kraushaar explain why Democrats are favored to win the House in 2026 but still face a much harder path to winning the Senate, Friday on the RCP podcast.

RCP Average: 40.3 | Trump Approval Rating, 12 June 2026 Latest Polls: 2026 House Elections RCP Average: Democrats +5.8 | 2026 Generic Congressional Vote

Republicans probably lost the House on election night 2024, when they fell short and only got a 2-3 seat majority, Trende said. If you control 218 House seats, you control the chamber and control what gets voted on. “Now, this redistricting that we’ve had has added a padding,” he said. “The flip side is that there aren’t many swing-state seats left. It’s virtually impossible to end up with a situation like we had in 2010, where the party gets 63 seats, because there just aren’t enough seats held by the opposition party that are vulnerable.” “It’s hard to see Democrats going above 20 seats, certainly 30 seats. There are limits to what they can do, but at the end of the day, if you control 218 House seats, you control the chamber and control what gets voted on,” he added.

Latest Polls: RCP Senate Election Polls 2026 RCP Senate Map: Battle for the Senate 2026 | 8 Toss Ups, Democrats 45, Republicans 47

“This is an extraordinarily tough Senate map for the Democrats,” Kraushaar said. “I think Democrats are raising expectations far too high.” “Trump carried every one of those red states except North Carolina. So Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas – this is the battleground list of states that they need to win to get back a majority. These are Trump-plus-11 states or more. That would be historically unprecedented in recent years to get that kind of cross-party support in these very partisan, polarized times.” “So I think it’s very possible that Democrats are heavy favorites still to win the House, despite some benefits in the redistricting process, but I think the Senate is more realistically a two-seat, three-seat maybe pickup opportunity for Democrats,” he said. “Midterm elections in particular are referenda on the party in power,” Trende added. “It’s just really hard to imagine a situation where the Republicans don’t end up netting losses in the House, flipping the chamber.”
RealClearPolitics Videos