Bill Melugin Presents FOX News Power Rankings: Dems +4 In Party Preference, Senate To Be Decided By AK, IA, OH, ME
FOX News national correspondent Bill Melugin reports on the latest FOX News power rankings on the 2026 midterm elections. On Tuesday’s “Special Report,” Melugin reported the Senate is likely to be decided by Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine, and that Democratic momentum in the House may be blunted by redistricting wins.
BILL MELUGIN: These are some brand-new Fox News power rankings, giving us really our first look at the landscape ahead of the midterms this fall. So let’s dive right into it, beginning with voter sentiment. Right now, voters have given Democrats the edge on a generic ballot, leading Republicans by 4% when it comes to party affiliation. That’s a five-point swing from back in 2024, when Republicans enjoyed a one-point advantage. Fox News projects that control of the Senate is a coin flip right now. And it’s likely going to come down to four specific toss-up states, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine. States leaning in the Democrats’ favor include Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, while Texas obviously leans Republican. As for the House, Fox News projects that Democrats have the lead to flip control of it. There are 16 House seats projected as toss-ups that will likely end up deciding control. However, Republican redistricting wins could end up blunting some of the potential losses they were facing, as the GOP can potentially add more than a dozen seats, compared to just six for Democrats. A good night for Democrats would see them flip control of the House with an almost 20-seat margin, while a good night for Republicans would see them hold control of the House by a 13-seat margin. But history is not on the president’s side here. Democrats lost nine House seats back in the 2022 midterms under President Biden, and Republicans lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms during President Trump’s first term. And Bret, pretty wild stat here. Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in Michigan since 1996. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1990. So we’re going to find out this year if either of those streaks will finally break.
NEW: Brand new @FoxNews power rankings give us a look at the landscape ahead of the November midterms.
– Dems up 4 points over GOP in party preference, a 5 point swing against GOP since 2024.
– Senate likely to be decided by AK, IA, OH, & ME
– Dems still in good shape to retake… pic.twitter.com/Fm14ZJ1SU0– Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) July 21, 2026
