NBC News data analyst Steve Kornacki looks forward to the 2026 midterm elections with about 100 days to go:

STEVE KORNACKI: Yeah, the countdown really is on. Let’s put in perspective the landscape here. The bottom line number for Trump, this is an average of all the polls right now. Trump at 41% approve. Compare that to his first term, the midterm in 2018. At this point, he is a little bit lower now than he was then. I think no mystery about what’s driving this. Okay, this is from a Fox News poll recently. But look at Trump on the issues here. Majority disapprove everywhere. His best mark is 42 on immigration. Look at those numbers on Iran, on the economy, on inflation. Goes a long way to explaining the overall approval rating. And then there’s this. How does he stack up with recent presidents at this same point here? Again, you see Trump at 41 now, 43 in 2018, and you see the others. KRISTEN WELKER: Yeah. And we should note that in almost all of these cases the party in power lost seats in the midterm elections. Slightly different picture in 2022 with former President Joe Biden. STEVE KORNACKI: Yeah, that’s the interesting thing. Democrats did lose the House in ’22, but it was only a few seats. And they actually gained a Senate seat. And that’s what Republicans are hoping to do some version of, ironically enough, this year. Republicans think that their one chance is the image of the Democratic Party. We’ve been seeing it in the primary season. Socialists winning Democratic primaries, candidates from the far left. And look at this here. Among Democrats, this is that Fox poll, a majority have a favorable view of socialism. Step outside the Democratic Party, it’s a totally different world. Look at Independents. Socialism deeply unpopular there. So is that a vulnerability for Democrats that would keep them from capitalizing on Trump’s obvious weaknesses here? Look more specifically at the two chambers here. Senate side, this if you’re a Democrat. This is the particularly tough one. They need a net gain of four seats to get control of the Senate. Take a look at the map here. How would they get four? Four is their target number. There’s – first thing, they can’t lose ground. Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan, Democrat seats. Big primary coming up in Michigan in a few weeks there that could have general election implications. Democrats have to win those just to not lose ground. Then the two Republican seats they think they have the best shot at would be Susan Collins in Maine. Democrats have a new candidate there now. And in North Carolina, where Democrats have nominated the former governor there. It’s a close state in ’24. If they do that, they still need two more. And where could they get those two? This is where it gets real tough for them. KRISTEN WELKER: It’s uphill. STEVE KORNACKI: Look at this. These are the four they talk about. Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Texas. And look at this, Kristen. They were all not just Trump states – double-digit Trump states. Democrats would need at least two of those to get the Senate. House side again, this one’s more manageable for Democrats. That’s the current balance, some vacancies. They only need a gain of a few seats to flip it. It wouldn’t take that big of a night. Two bellwether tests on the Republican side: Mike Lawler, New York. You see this. One of the few House Republicans in a district that Trump lost. Is he able to hold on in a climate like this? If he does, that could bode well for Republican chances. Flip side of this, Texas. Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez. Remember, they redrew the lines, Republicans did in Texas, to take advantage here – this is deep South Texas – of those Hispanic gains Trump made in 2024. This district would’ve gone for Trump now by 11 points. If Gonzalez is able to survive here, it was say those Hispanic gains, maybe they’re not translating past ’24 for Republicans. Maybe they’re not transferring to other candidates. And of course, hanging over all of this is the big X factor — the war with Iran. And you could see it here. A new poll from Politico, basically two-thirds, 36 plus 29, 65% say the war shouldn’t continue, or only if costs to Americans don’t increase. But here’s what really stands out, Kristen: the MAGA Republican base. It’s now 56% who share that opinion here. Go back a couple months, that number was only 29% and 12%. That number was only 41%. From 41% to 56% in the President’s base. KRISTEN WELKER: This is significant because this is really one of the first times we’ve seen erosion in President Trump’s MAGA base. STEVE KORNACKI: Absolutely. And volatility. Still months to go before the election.

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