Wednesday on the RealClearPolitics podcast, elections analyst Sean Trende joins Carl Cannon, Tom Bevan, and Andrew Walworth to discuss the results of key primaries yesterday in Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Virginia, and Washington state. They also discuss the GOP’s “candidate quality” problems, with three notable recent examples. Plus, the politics of abortion in Kansas, and Maryland lawmakers trying to redistrict the state’s only red district away — prompting a proposal to redraw the state borders between Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia. Plus, Listen live weekdays at 11:00 a.m. Eastern on SiriusXM’s Megyn Kelly Channel 111, or on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or other platforms.

00:00 – Opening: El-Sayed Underperforms Polls RCP’s elections analyst Sean Trende joins Walworth, Cannon, and Bevan to discuss the results of last night’s primary elections in Missouri, Kansas, Virginia, and Washington, starting with the Michigan Democratic Senate primary, where Abdul El-Sayed’s win was a lot closer than polls predicted. Michigan Democratic Senate Primary — Polls: El-Sayed +1-.2 | Result: El-Sayed +1.0 “Primary polling really is tough,” Trende explained. “Primary voters are a weird slice of the electorate: people who feel like coming out on a random Tuesday in the middle of their kids’ summer vacations to vote. It’s really hard to get the electorate right.” Watch: El-Sayed: “We Took $ 70 Million on the Chin and Kept Fighting Back” Watch: Mike Rogers on Abdul El-Sayed: “I Fought Terrorism My Whole Life… Shocking I’m Up Against A Guy Who Thought America Deserved 9/11” “That 9/11 comment is a reference to something Hassan said, not Abdul El-Sayed. I probably should point that out,” Carl Cannon added. Watch: Abdul El-Sayed Blasts Mike Rogers: “Is He MAGA? Is He Neocon? Nah, Man, He’s Just A Corporate Sellout” “Last night’s results confirmed what we’ve been seeing in the polls, which is a really bad environment for the GOP,” Trende said. “It was more consistent with the generic-ballot polls showing Democrats up 7 or 8 points than with the ones showing Democrats up 2, 3, or 4 points.” “The House absolutely goes Democrat,” he said. “The Senate is close.” *** 20:23 – Max Miller Isn’t Dropping Out The panel turns to a shocking scandal involving Ohio GOP Rep. Max Miller’s divorce and accusations leveled by his now-ex-father-in-law, Ohio GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno, that Miller abused his ex-wife and daughter. Is the Republicans’ “candidate quality” problem now so bad that it could cost them the majority? Watch: CNN Asks Rep. Max Miller If He Abused Wife, Daughter, And Exes, Takes Illegal Drugs, Pushed Girl Down Stairs Ohio resident Sean Trende said Miller’s response was genuinely shocking. “I couldn’t believe a human being in 2026 was saying this-he said, ‘If this had happened, would she really have offered to make me a sandwich a couple of days later?’ That’s almost a trope of domestic abuse.” “There’s an attempt to broaden this into a wider indictment of the GOP: Why didn’t Bernie Moreno weigh in earlier? But look, this is live litigation with very real consequences, and we have no idea what Moreno’s daughter wanted,” he continued. “He seems to have taken a lesson from Donald Trump-which is not a crazy lesson-that you just tweet through it.” “It’s the exact same problem Democrats had with Graham Platner — once someone has the nomination, they have to choose to relinquish it,” Trende said. “I guess we have to put in the caveat that he could be telling the truth. I’m not persuaded, but we should put the possibility out there.” *** 26:30 – Rep. Tom Kean MIA The group discusses another problem candidate for Republicans, as Rep. Tom Kean Jr. faces criticism for filing stock-transaction disclosures while he was incommunicado for four months during inpatient treatment for “depression.” “The Democratic ad kind of writes itself,” Andrew Walworth said. Watch: GOP Rep. Tom Kean Returns After Three-Month Absence, Reveals He Was Hospitalized For Depression “If you’re hospitalized for depression, you can certainly sign your name four times in three months — I don’t think it looks as bad as Andy does,” Cannon offers. “If you’re explaining, you’re losing,” said Trende. “As a member of Congress, talking about your stock trades isn’t going to help you win over the local waitress … And he was in trouble before he disappeared to get treated for depression. Now he’s in deeper trouble.” *** 36:04 – Pro-Choice Victory in Kansas The panel discusses Kansas voters rejecting a proposal to elect state Supreme Court justices directly, which supporters hoped would produce a more anti-abortion court. The panel sees the result as evidence that abortion rights remain broadly popular and that voters remain wary of politicizing courts and changing established systems. “Kansas right now has a 6-1 Democratic Supreme Court, which is kind of the subtext of this — because Republicans have had trouble winning gubernatorial races,” Trende explained. “But even conservatives are like, ‘Why would we change the way that the Supreme Court gets placed? Everything seems to be working. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.'” “It shows you that the Dobbs decision, throwing it to the states, is going to create a patchwork-a quilt-of laws. They’re going to be different in all these states,” Cannon said. “Some will have the conditions Sean mentioned: no late-term abortion, parental consent. There will be states like New York and Massachusetts with no requirements at all, and there will be states that ban it.” *** 41:09 – Leaked Audio of Todd Blanche A leaked recording captures Todd Blanche promising permanent solutions related to abortion policy across every state, prompting questions about whether the administration is pursuing nationwide abortion restrictions. The panel says Susan Collins’ opposition to the Blanche nomination gives her a chance to distance herself from Trump in a difficult reelection campaign. “I’m not even sure what that [Blanche] statement means, because what happened in Kansas is the Dobbs decision,” Trende said. *** 44:45 – Maryland Redistricting Or Rewriting State Borders? The episode ends with the hosts joke about a failed proposal for Maryland’s Eastern Shore to secede and form a new state, before turning to a serious redistricting referendum. Sean Trende predicts Democratic voters will likely approve a plan that could eliminate Maryland’s sole Republican congressional district. “First of all, no one in the world calls it Mardelva. I’ve never even heard that before. They call it Delmarva, which is bad enough. It should be the new state of Chesapeake,” Andrew Walworth said.

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