CNN’s Harry Enten argues that Democratic primary polls may be overcounting younger voters, leading pollsters to overstate the strength of Democratic Socialist and progressive candidates within the Democratic Party.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, the breaking news this morning, a big upset in the Democratic governor’s primary in Wisconsin. David Crowley, a Milwaukee County executive, defeated Francesca Hong, who was seen as the very progressive candidate, Democratic socialist, not even endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Now we say it’s an upset because it was because the polls leading up to election day all had Francesca Hong up by a lot. Now, we’ve seen this before. Just a couple of weeks ago — a week ago in Michigan. So, what’s going on here? CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is here. HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: It happened again. It happened again. It happened again. Johnny B. BERMAN: So, how much? ENTEN: Yes, how much? I mean, my God, can we catch a break here? Look at this. Polls overstate lefties in Dem primaries. You know, last week it was ten points. You think ten points is a lot. How about 20 points in Wisconsin? Now, I will note that in this case Wisconsin had some light candidate switches, candidates coming out, candidates leaving the race. And, you know, I was suspect after what happened in Michigan that the polling that showed Francesca Hong up by about 20 points was actually going to come to fruition. But it did happen again. The polls overstated the lefties in Wisconsin, just like they did in another Great Lakes battleground state of Michigan. BERMAN: OK. What are some of the possible reasons why these polls are ultimately overstating the support that they get on Election Day? ENTEN: Yes, if this were just about, you know, the fact that the polls overestimated the two lefties, that would be one thing. But I think that this may speak to something bigger, which is the polling may be having too many of those young progressives. And what am I talking about? Well, just take a look here. Who won the five counties with the most under the age of 40? That is 18 to 39. In the Michigan Senate, it was Abdul El-Sayed. He won all five. How about in Wisconsin governor? The exact same thing. In the youngest counties, that is where these lefties did the best. And so, when you kind of look at the polling, you go, hey, wait a minute, maybe these polls had too many younger folks in them. And I think that speaks to something larger potentially, which is all these pollings, which are sewing progressivism on the left, the far left rising, seeing Democratic socialism, especially in the case of Wisconsin, rising, you got to look at these results and say, hey, wait a minute. Maybe, Johnny, maybe these polls are overestimating how much that Democratic socialism is rising within the Democratic Party, because in two key statewide races in a row, what we’ve seen is the lefties being vastly overestimated. And in the case of Wisconsin, the Democratic socialists being vastly overestimated by 20 points. BERMAN: If you oversample among young people, one of the things that can happen is, young people don’t vote as much. ENTEN: Yes. BERMAN: And then you can skew the ultimate results there. ENTEN: Correct. And I think that means so much as we’re looking at these polls and what the actual implications are in terms of how big the left rises. BERMAN: OK. And the other thing that may have happened in Wisconsin, especially in Wisconsin, is that people who hadn’t decided may have decided late — ENTEN: Yes. BERMAN: Or they may have changed their minds because a lot of the things that people were talking about just in the last few weeks with Francesca Hong may not have helped her, like, say, her past positions, not digging Thanksgiving. ENTEN: Yes. Folks, if you are going to run for political office in this country, dare I say you should be pro-Thanksgiving from the beginning of the campaign to the end of the campaign. Enough of the anti-Thanksgiving stuff. And why do I say that? Because just look at this, Americans who think or say that they don’t celebrate Thanksgiving, it’s just eight percent. It’s just eight percent. To put that into some perspective for you, 10 percent of Americans say the earth is flat, and 12 percent of Americans say the moon landing was fake. Don’t pick a position or be able to be implied that you picked a position in which you — less people believe in it than say the moon landing was fake or the earth was flat, Johnny. BERMAN: And I will note that that was the predominant story about her in the news the last few weeks. ENTEN: Yes. BERMAN: So, that could — certainly the last week. So, that could have absolutely had an impact there. Harry Enten, thank you very much for that. ENTEN: Thank you, Johnny.

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