Charles McElwee, the founding editor of RealClearPennsylvania, explained Democrats’ chances in three GOP-held Congressional districts around the state, Sunday on CNN:

DANNY FREEMAN, CNN: Three districts in Eastern Pennsylvania, one, seven and eight, you know them well. They are currently held by Republicans. Let’s start there. Do you think it is actually possible that Democrats can flip all of those seats come November? CHARLES MCELWEE, REALCLEARPENNSYLVANIA: It would be an uphill battle, Danny, because each district has its own composition, unique dynamics in play, and certainly with the first congressional district, Bucks County, that’s really its own thing. You have voters there who identify more with New Jersey than their own state, Pennsylvania, and Brian Fitzpatrick, the incumbent, he is really an Independent-minded member of Congress who really reflects his own constituency and has taken positions that align with his own voters, whether its foreign policy or economics. The story is different in buzzing Northeastern Pennsylvania or the Lehigh Valley, though, because these are two regions that have experienced dramatic demographic change just since Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania back in 2016. FREEMAN: All right, I want to get to those two northeastern districts in a moment, but just to focus on PA-1 for a second, again, Bucks County, a county that flipped to President Trump in the presidential election. And as you noted, Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate Republican, he is someone who has held off many Democratic attempts at taking that seat. If Fitzpatrick falls, is that the signal that this is a blue wave year, do you think? MCELWEE: Oh, it would signal really a situation reminiscent of 2006 when his late brother, Mike Fitzpatrick, lost that race to Patrick Murphy, a democrat who was the first veteran from the Iraq War to represent Congress back that year when he prevailed. So if Fitzpatrick went down, that would foretell a serious problem for the Republican Party and really, with Bucks County itself it is three-tiered. You have Upper Bucks, which is really an extension of the Lehigh Valley; Central Bucks, where you have a lot of those well-to-do suburbanites who are either Independent minded or are shifting Democrat. But his base for victory would really be Lower Bucks, which was a historically blue collar Democratic area, really similar to other dynamics you see across Pennsylvania, whether it is in the West or Northeast. But those voters have shifted R in recent cycles and that would really be his red wall in a year like this one.

McElwee also discussed the role that immigration has played in changing the demographics of the voting population:

FREEMAN: So, Charles, let’s talk about the demographic changes that you’re talking about with Northeastern Pennsylvania, because when we are talking about this, we are talking about predominantly the Latino vote. You wrote the canary in the coal mine piece back in 2024, that Latinos really would be decisive in the presidential race, specifically in that region of Pennsylvania. It came true. I guess my question for you, though, from your perspective, are Republicans holding on to that Latino support enough for it to make a difference in the midterms? MCELWEE: I think this is the very demographic that will be a challenge for the Republican Party in Pennsylvania this year, because it is the ultimate swing vote in Pennsylvania. Most cities east of the Susquehanna River in the past 20 to 30 years have become Latino majority or plurality and in the case of places like Hazleton or Allentown, you have Latino voters that are really reminiscent of, let’s say, the Reagan Democrats back in the 90s, 80s and 90s into the 2000, let’s say, second and third generation Italian, Eastern European Americans who started to shift toward the GOP. But we are still open to the Democratic Party in the 90s, Clinton being the case. Fast forward, the Trump Democrats in Pennsylvania this cycle are those Latino voters who went for him in 2024, but they are really disillusioned with Trump over the economy, over foreign policy, and really the cost of living in places like Hazleton and Allentown and that’s where it remains to be seen, will they show up to vote or will they vote Democratic? FREEMAN: Yes, and again, I was in Allentown during the primary and just seeing those gas prices as high as they were, I mean, that’s something that is going to impact a lot of those voters. You have to imagine. Last thing, Charles, of course, the other thing that’s happening this year in Pennsylvania, Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, running for reelection after winning big in 2022. Everyone seems to say because of polling that he is favored to win in the fall. I am curious, though, if Democrats have a bad night in the congressional side and pick up, say, only one of these competitive congressional districts, Shapiro has really put his name on a lot of those races. Do you think if they only pick up, say, one seat, will that hurt Shapiro’s chances at a potential 2028 run? MCELWEE: It could prove problematic because the challenge for Shapiro is engaging younger voters, so his base is really those well-to-do suburbanites in a state that is ever more suburban and he also has managed to do well among working class voters that he has engaged in places like Northeastern Pennsylvania. But his approach is very reminiscent of a 2000s-like politician, and that bodes well for, let’s say, the suburban boomer, but it may prove grating to the younger Zoomer, who they are just starting out professionally and they are living in places like suburban Harrisburg. So it could prove a problem for him, especially with issues like data centers, which is really a top concern in Pennsylvania among voters of both parties. But as it stands, RealClearPolitics polling average has Shapiro at 21.5 points advantage over Stacy Garrity. For perspective, Danny, back in mid-summer 2022, Shapiro had a three-and-a-half point advantage over Mastriano, who went on to have the worst performance as a gubernatorial candidate since the 1940s.