George Yeo, the former Foreign Minister of Singapore, offered this commentary on what’s going on behind the scenes of the Trump administration’s trade negotiations with China. He said Trump needs a deal this year, while the mood in China is “defiant,” last week at Fudan University in Shanghai: “In fact, he has only a few months to have a deal with China.” “A former Korean minister told me that if he wants $ 2 from you, he will ask for $ 10 and he’ll scream at you. So in the end, if you settle for three or four, you’re so relieved. He’s so happy because he only wanted two. That’s the way he negotiates.” “Every person I met-ordinary Chinese-the mood is defiant. In other words: don’t buckle. Don’t kneel. If there’s no agreement, there’s no agreement.” “Although, whatever happens, he declares victory,” he said about Trump. “But in the end, he’s realistic. He wants a deal with China. But China said, ‘I’m not calling you. If you want, you call me.’ So this is problematic-because face is involved.”

GEORGE YEO: Mao Zedong used to say, “Treat the imperialists as paper tigers, but tactically take them very seriously.” Tactically, we have to take Trump very seriously-tactically-because he has power, and he’s supported by large numbers of Americans. He controls both houses of Congress, and what he does affects markets, affects business, and affects our well-being. So we have to take Trump seriously. He has a very aggressive, dramatic way of negotiating. A former Korean minister told me that if he wants $ 2 from you, he will ask for $ 10 and he’ll scream at you. So in the end, if you settle for three or four, you’re so relieved. He’s so happy because he only wanted two. That’s the way he negotiates. He imposes tariffs on everybody and then watches how much he has softened you. And there’s a sense of relief when he smiles, describing you as a friend, puts his arm around you. There’s a great wave of relief. Every leader who goes to the White House to see Trump-the media of that country, the people from that country-all watch. Whether it’s Japan, whether it’s Canada, whether it’s the UK, they all watch: “Ah, luckily he had a good meeting with Trump.” That’s how he negotiates. And to some extent it is rational, because if bullying helps you get a better outcome-and you can bully-bully. So he’s waiting for China to kiss his ass. But of course, China refused to kiss his ass. My guess is Trump needs an agreement. If by the midterms he’s not able to get Americans-his supporters-fired up again, he’ll lose one or two houses. Now, by the middle of next year, the campaigning will have begun-primaries and all that. So it’s one year. In fact, he has only a few months to have a deal with China. Because if there’s no deal with China, inflation will go up. The U.S. deficit-the attempt to cut it-will be completely unrealistic. Interest rates will be affected. Even the U.S. dollar may be affected. So gold prices have been going up. The 10-year rate has been going up. And Trump is pro-business. So all the time, he has one eye on the market. If the market is too nervous, he becomes nervous. Although, whatever happens, he declares victory. Remember that. Whatever happens, he will declare victory. That’s how he is. This is his history. So don’t be surprised. But in the end, he’s realistic. He wants a deal with China. But China said, I’m not calling you. If you want, you call me. So this is problematic-because face is involved. My belief-I have no proof-is this: you know Jensen Huang from Nvidia? He went to see Trump. Had dinner with Trump in Mar-a-Lago for his H20 chip. They had a good dinner. Trump said, Okay, you can sell your H20 chips to China. Then one week later, he appeared in Beijing and met with [Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China] He Lifeng. And this time around, he removed his outer jacket and tie-looking very Chinese. And had a conversation with He Lifeng. It was a good meeting. I was wondering-it’s very dangerous for Jensen Huang to go to Beijing? He’ll be criticized back home. He was not criticized. My conclusion, speaking as a foreign policy wallah, is that he was carrying a message. And He Lifeng passed back a message. So after that, two days later, Bessent said tariffs are not sustainable, and the stock market shot up. And then Trump said, We are talking to the Chinese. The Chinese got fed up. They said, You’re playing with me. So they said, No, there was no such conversation. So the whole thing got jammed up. Finally, because the U.S. needs an agreement, so the meeting in Geneva took place. And after one hour, He Lifeng walked out looking very unhappy. So again, he must have been playing around, and they must have been called back. And so we had an agreement, which was mentioned this morning. Now, for the Chinese-well, it may hold, it may not hold. But their position is: if it holds, okay, we’ll go forward. If it doesn’t, so be it. Because it may last one week. Every person I met-ordinary Chinese-the mood is defiant. In other words: don’t buckle. Don’t kneel. If there’s no agreement, there’s no agreement. When we were at EU yesterday, Professor Tang-who is always doing social investigation and interviews people-said that all the shops we met, for none of them was America a key factor. It’s okay-we can sell to other parts of the world. I think the Americans know that. And they need an agreement. So I think something will happen. And they know that China is sensitive. And Bessent will tell Trump, Look, do you want an agreement or not? If you want an agreement, then we have to be more consistent. But Trump being Trump-expect a kind of rollercoaster ride. But my bet is that there will be some kind of agreement, good for a short while at least. Then we’ll see. Because if you are in China or in Moscow, you’ll say, Whatever you negotiate is only good for another one, two, three years. And after that, you may have to negotiate again. So the hope that the Americans can drive a wedge between Russia and China-don’t believe that.

Here’s the full event: On 12th May 2025, Former Singaporean Foreign Minister George Yeo held a conversation with Zhang Weiwei, Dean of China Institute at Fudan University in Shanghai. They talked about where Trump’s trade war is heading; the prospect of China and US relations; India-Pakistan conflict; the issue of Taiwan and more.
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