James S. Robbins, the dean of the Institute for World Politics, joined the RCP podcast on Monday to discuss the Trump administration’s deadly sabre-rattling with Venezuela, as a sizable American fleet prepares to spend Thanksgiving in the Caribbean. Is this a prelude to an actual war? Or just psy-ops to pressure Maduro to step aside? “We see the designation of the Maduro coterie as a terrorist organization, the strikes on drug boats, and a growing task force offshore. Airlines are being warned not to fly into Venezuela. It really makes you think something might happen,” Robbins explained. “The 2024 elections in Venezuela were internationally recognized as rigged, and the main opposition leader won the Nobel Peace Prize. Venezuela has ties to China, Iran, and Russia. They have a border dispute with Guyana. They’re sitting on massive energy reserves-which they’ve destroyed internally through socialism.” “If it were me, I’d talk more about legitimacy-the subversion of democracy-and get people inside Venezuela thinking that way,” Robbins said. “The regime is talking about retreating into the hills for a guerrilla war, which tells me they don’t want to go head-to-head with the U.S.” “There were reports today that the first move might be covert operations or special operations-maybe a decapitation strike targeting the leadership,” he said. “With Trump, you never know. There was talk before the Iran operation-and then he just did it. Just took out their nuclear capability.” “Maybe he’d just take out the regime,” Robbins said. “When you designate the ‘Cartel de los Soles’ as a terrorist organization, you can take a variety of measures, including taking people out.” “It forms the legal basis for further covert and overt action. Naming groups as terrorist organizations opens up a different area of law and gives the president a lot of flexibility. If we start seeing ‘findings’ coming out of the White House, that means they’re legitimate targets-and something will happen. They wouldn’t do that if they weren’t going to take action.” “There are a lot of issues at play. It could be that President Trump just wants to clean this one up,” he suggested. “I think it would be short, sharp action to destabilize the regime, kick them out, put in the government people actually want, and then leave. That’s the Trump way.”
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