James S. Robbins, the dean of the Institute for World Politics, joined the RCP Podcast on Monday to discuss the latest proposal for a deal to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio described as the best shot for an agreement we’ve seen in “a long time.” If Ukraine won’t officially surrender any territory, is a Korea-style armistice the best possible option? “Judging from the reports this morning out of Geneva, the original 28-point document that was heavily slanted toward Russia has been carved down to about 19 points, and some of the more onerous pro-Moscow points may have been dropped,” Robbins explained. “We have this deadly attrition war that’s going on. It doesn’t really show signs of abating. Both sides continue slowly to escalate, but also Russia is slowly making gains,” he said. “So at some point, we have to ask: How much longer can Ukraine keep fighting? And how much appetite is there for the rest of the world to keep supporting the Ukrainians?” “The facts are that Russia hasn’t been expelled, and they’re not likely to be. The front is moving in the wrong direction,” Robbins said. “If the Ukrainians simply acknowledge reality as part of an armistice-as opposed to a formal war termination, in which Russia gets sovereignty recognized by the world-that might be a good step. But officially, from Ukraine’s point of view, they won’t give up anything.” “Russia has four to five times the mobilization base of Ukraine. Putin doesn’t care how many Russians die. They’ve had something like a hundred times the casualties they had in the Afghanistan war. Putin just doesn’t care,” Robbins said. “So it comes down to how many Ukrainians have to die just to maintain their sovereignty-and will they keep paying that price? Because the Russians keep advancing slowly, excruciatingly slowly, but the front is moving the wrong way.” “At some point, Ukraine might have to say: Okay, fine. Let’s have an armistice. Not a formal end to the war-just a ceasefire. Let everyone rest for a while,” he said. “Yes, Ukraine can escalate-but do they have escalation dominance? I don’t think so. Russia is still there. Russia can still hit back. And periodically, Putin starts talking about tactical nuclear weapons-the ultimate escalation. So yes, Ukraine can inflict pain, but it comes with cost and risk.”
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