NBC elections analyst Steve Kornacki breaks down the results of a new NBC News poll ahead of elections on Tuesday. Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 47 to 43% since their last poll in March, and 52% of respondents blame Trump for the government shutdown.

STEVE KORNACKI: 48 hours from now, we’ll get the first votes of major elections since last year’s presidential, and this NBC News poll here is our first poll since the spring. What we find is the mood that has soured on Trump and the Republican Party during that time. An approval rating of 43% now in our new poll for Donald Trump. But check out our previous poll, this was back in March, 47-51. He was starting out now, well into his first year, this second term at 47%, down to a 43% job approval rating for President Trump. It’s, of course, coming against the backdrop of the government shutdown. We asked the question: Who do you blame? 42% say Democrats in Congress, but 52% say it’s either the president’s fault or his party in Congress’s fault. KRISTEN WELKER: Here we are a month into this shutdown now, and more Americans are still pointing the finger at Republicans for this. STEVE KORNACKI: Certainly seems like it could be related to some of the numbers we’re seeing here. Now check this out. Talk about Trump and his job performance on particular issues. Again, basically a year ago, he was elected. We asked folks: Do you think he’s delivering here? He does get decent marks when it comes to border security and immigration; a slight majority say he has lived up to what he promised to do there. But on none of these other topics do you see that number getting past the mid 40s. In fact, the low 30s down here on the economy questions. KRISTEN WELKER: Well, and part of why President Trump was elected on the economy, now it seems like it could be a headwind heading into Tuesday for Republicans. STEVE KORNACKI: And a huge shift obviously from his first term, too, when he actually did get good marks there. So you talk about heading into this Tuesday. We asked folks about their enthusiasm for the midterm elections. That’ll be next year, 2026. But this was astounding. 66% – two-thirds of all voters have a high level of interest. We find that number typically on the eve of the actual midterm election. This is a year out. And this is what’s encouraging for Democrats, troubling for Republicans, more enthusiasm for Democrats. That high level of interest, it’s about three quarters of Democrats. It is a little bit lower there for Republicans. And that could feed into the second part of this equation. And that is we asked folks: Midterm election, which party would you want to control Congress? And the Democrats have now in our poll – this is significant – opened up an eight-point advantage over Republicans. We checked this back in the spring. It was dead even. That eight-point level is typically what you would find for a party that’s poised for a big midterm election. That’s the kind of lead Democrats had when they swept to power in Congress in Trump’s first term. So we’ll see if that holds now going forward. But that’s a potentially big shift. Are there notes of caution here for Democrats? Yes, there are. This is the big one right here, the party’s image. Democrats only 28% positive. Look at that, 53% negative. Republicans, it’s only 37% and 46%. Democrats are 25 points underwater. And we should note, this is coming, as we say, during the shutdown. And our pollsters do note that sometimes during shutdowns, there can be a little volatility in these numbers. So I think it really heightens the stakes for Tuesday night in these elections, and especially in New Jersey, because Republicans think they can win that one. And if Republicans can win in New Jersey despite the numbers we’re showing here, they’re going to be feeling a little bit more encouraged heading into next year. But if the Democrats have a big night, these numbers have a lot to say about it.

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