On Friday’s RealClearPolitics podcast, Andrew Walworth, Tom Bevan, and Carl Cannon discuss the nuances of the indictment of Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, and analyze two critical candidate debates from last night: for mayor in New York City and attorney general in Virginia. And then, a closer look at the New Jersey gubernatorial race, which is looking closer than ever with less than three weeks until Election Day. Finally, RCP senior elections analyst Sean Trende joins the guys to discuss the Supreme Court arguments on the Voting Rights Act and redistricting, and how the result could impact the 2026 midterm elections. Plus, they deliver this week’s You Cannot Be Serious!? stories. You can listen to the show weeknights at 6:00 p.m. on SiriusXM’s POTUS Channel 124 and then on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, and here on our website. *** First, the group looks at the indictment of John Bolton for mishandling classified documents during and after his time as President Trump’s national security adviser. Bolton entered a plea of not guilty in a Maryland courthouse this morning and says the prosecution is political, but comments he’s made about Hillary Clinton’s email server and President Trump’s documents case are coming back to haunt him. Are more indictments of Trump’s antagonists on the way? “Everyone is painting this as part of Trump’s ‘revenge’ tour, but there are some different circumstances in this case,” Tom Bevan explained. “This is a case that existed and was being pursued by the Biden administration, and according to some reporting, they’re the ones who shut it down for ‘political’ reasons!” Carl Cannon offered Bolton the benefit of the doubt: “We have too much classified information in this country. I’d want to know what the information was. If they’re going to try to put this man in prison, I’d like to know what the documents were, and why they were classified, before we comment.” “This is part of Trump one coming back to haunt Trump two a little bit,” Bevan commented. “Why did Donald Trump hire John Bolton in the first place? He was a notorious neocon hawk!” *** In the next segment, around minute 11, an update on the three major elections taking place next month, starting with the lively mayoral debate last night in New York City. “I don’t think anything changed,” Bevan concluded about the debate. “Cuomo seemed sort of old and tired, and I think New Yorkers have had it with him. Mamdani did fine. I think he’s going to be the next mayor of New York City.” “Cuomo didn’t see this guy coming,” Cannon agreed. “But as you listen to the substance-you know, he’s asked about substance and Mamdani gives a glib insult in response.” *** And then, at minute 15, they move on to the other debate from last night, in the race for attorney general, where Republican Jason Miyares faced off against Democrat Jay Jones, who sent a colleague a series of text messages so ugly that it became a national story. Could the Jones scandal impact the election for governor too? “Miyares is now ahead by 0.3% in our RCP Average,” Bevan said. “The last two polls have him leading Jay Jones. He was not leading prior to this whole thing. And the race for governor between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears has tightened as well, although Spanberger is still ahead.” He added, “There’s nothing that’s disqualifying in politics anymore! You can just say you want to kill people in private messages, and that’s fine if you apologize.” “Hate the sin, love the sinner,” Cannon quipped about Democrats still supporting Jones. He added about Trump: “You can get convicted, you can be accused and lose in a civil case once you’re accused of sexual assault and have to pay millions of dollars, and still win election.” *** After that, around minute 18, a status update on the gubernatorial election in New Jersey, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli has narrowed to four points in the RCP Average. As Election Day gets closer, former President Obama has endorsed Sherrill and Trump is planning to campaign for Ciattarelli. “Ciattarelli only lost his last race four years ago by 3.5 points. That’s about where he’s at right now. If he’s able to continue to build momentum toward the end, this could be a really close race,” Bevan concluded. “Mikie Sherrill is still the favorite in this race. But an upset is not out of the question.” “Obama is still an important name in the Democratic Party and carries some weight,” Cannon explained. “Trump is obviously a force in the Republican Party, but the problem there for the Republicans in that state is Trump did much better in 2024 than he’d done in his two previous races in New Jersey, but he still lost by what-six points?” *** Finally, at timestamp 23, RCP’s senior elections analyst Sean Trende joins the group for a deep dive into the oral arguments at the Supreme Court on Louisiana v. Callais this week about how Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act governs Congressional redistricting, and how the result could impact next year’s midterm elections. How many districts could go Republican if the Supreme Court decides redistricting is more about partisan politics than race? “The progressive frame on this is that it’s about scaling back protections on racial discrimination in redistricting,” Trende explained. “I think the lawyers for Louisiana would take the point of view that, no, the discrimination comes from drawing on the basis of race. It’s basically the argument over affirmative action transported to the redistricting world.” “What’s happened is that states that are redistricting have been walking this tightrope, where if you use race too much and you don’t have a good basis in the Voting Rights Act, your map’s a racial gerrymander. If you don’t use race enough, then you’ve violated the Voting Rights Act. It’s one of the reasons states in the South are almost continuously embroiled in litigation every redistricting cycle,” he continued. “Part of what’s happened is that a lot of this litigation has just become a proxy for politics. Democrats want Democratic districts, and minority voters tend to prefer Democrats.” “The consensus seems to be that it was a very sloppy argument,” he said. “Obviously, the three liberals are content with the status quo; Justices Thomas and Alito are ready to go and strike down Section 2-but that’s not anything we didn’t know walking into the argument. And the justices who are really in play-Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, Roberts, and Barrett-didn’t really tip their hand.” If the Court announces its ruling soon enough, how much could this impact the results of the midterms? Trende concluded: “If Republicans get everything they seem to want to get, and if they can get with the VRA, you’re talking about making the median district in Congress something like an R+3 district, which means Trump won it by about eight points. And so the best-case scenario for Democrats would be sweeping all the districts up to those that Trump won by eight points, and that is a monumental task.” *** Don’t miss an episode of the RealClearPolitics weeknight radio show – subscribe at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
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