Tuesday on the RealClearPolitics podcast, Tom Bevan, Carl Cannon, and Andrew Walworth discussed Proposition 50 in California, a ballot measure to let the state legislature redraw congressional districts, the situation in Congress as the government shutdown sets the record for longest ever, and an awesome example of the Chicago political machine in action. After that, another look at elections today in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. What are the chances of an upset? You can listen to the show live each day at 11:00 a.m. on SiriusXM’s Megyn Kelly Channel 111 and then on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, and here on our website. *** The show opened with a look at the consequences of Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ballot measure to redraw the state’s congressional maps in response to Texas Republicans doing the same. This could net Democrats up to five more seats in Congress and has sparked retaliation in other states. What does this mean for next year’s midterm elections and beyond? “It depends how cynical voters are. Democrats are going to love it,” Carl Cannon said. “It’s hardball politics. This is the last nail in the coffin of Tip O’Neill’s dictum that ‘all politics is local.’ Now, all politics is national.” “It’s not good for democracy that this is where we are. You can argue Republicans in Texas started it, but as Sean Trende has pointed out, Democrats have been far more aggressive in gerrymandering when given the chance,” Tom Bevan commented. “This is the new normal. We’ll see more of it nationwide. Maybe it’s a short-term win for Newsom and Democrats, but in the broader sense, it’s a losing battle.” *** After that, at minute 17, the group discusses the ongoing partial government shutdown. Unless they solve the problem tonight, tomorrow will make this the longest shutdown ever. Is there any indication they’re near a deal? Who will blink first? “Democrats are not giving an inch. When Republicans did this, Elizabeth Warren said they were holding the government hostage. Now Democrats are doing it but won’t own up to it; they’re winning the PR battle, maybe, but for how long?” Cannon said. “You’re seeing right-wing commentators warming to ‘nuking the filibuster,’ but plenty of Republicans still think it’s a mistake,” Tom Bevan said. “Trump says they’ll lose the midterms otherwise. If Republicans keep the House and nuke the filibuster, and Trump is still president for two years, they could jam a bunch of stuff through. If they lose the House, divided government returns and nothing gets done.” *** And then, at timestamp 26, Illinois Democrat Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia reportedly gamed the system in Illinois’s fourth district so he could retire and pass his seat on to his chief of staff, Dr. Patty Garcia (no relation). What’s going on in Cook County? “Leave it to Chicago to plumb new depths of corruption. We’ve seen seats passed down before-John Dingell to Debbie Dingell, or more recently in Arizona, when Raul Grijalva passed away and his daughter ran and won his seat. But this is different,” Tom Bevan said. “He drops out so his chief of staff can file. Nobody else was running because he said he was running for reelection. So no other Democrats jumped in. It’s a bait-and-switch, and now his chief of staff is basically a shoo-in to win next year because of the underhanded way they did it. Even by Chicago standards, it’s astonishing.” “And with the added wrinkle that she has the same surname. Some voters are going to be confused and just vote for ‘Garcia’ like before,” Cannon added. “But we should give him the benefit of the doubt. I’m sure he’s doing this to save democracy.” *** At minute 32, the group looks at the elections taking place today in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City. What are the chances the results will be different than the polls? “The candidate who’s capturing everyone’s attention-the one being parodied on Saturday Night Live-is Zohran Mamdani in New York City. The two women running in New Jersey and Virginia are both establishment figures. They’ll win, but not by the blowout margins Democrats hoped for,” Tom Bevan predicted. “That tells you something about where the energy is in the Democratic Party going forward.” “If you win, you win,” Cannon said. “If Abigail Spanberger becomes the first female governor in the history of the Commonwealth, that’s historic and exciting for Democrats.” “In New Jersey, that race is still up in the air. If Mikie Sherrill wins there and Spanberger wins here-and Prop 50 passes in California-Democrats will come out of this week saying they won everything, it was a referendum on Donald Trump. The narrative that Democrats are in trouble will disappear-at least for now,” he said. “And if Ciattarelli wins, it reinforces another lesson: candidates matter. An inspired, charismatic candidate can still beat the odds.” *** Don’t miss a single episode of the RealClearPolitics weeknight radio show – subscribe at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
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