Friday on the RealClearPolitics radio show — weeknights at 6:00 p.m. on SiriusXM’s POTUS Channel 124 and then on Apple, Spotify, and here on our website — Andrew Walworth, Tom Bevan, and Carl Cannon discuss the Supreme Court decision the White House is calling a “huge win,” the continuing fallout over Zohran Mamdani winning the Democratic primary to run for NYC Mayor, new polls confirming narratives that Republicans made huge gains among minority demographics in 2024, and new polls from Emerson college about the 2028 presidential primaries. After that, RCP’s Susan Crabtree sheds some light on efforts to get Americans held in Iran out of prison. *** First, the Supreme Court delivered what the White House is calling a “giant win” for President Trump this morning, with a 6–3 decision limiting federal courts’ authority to issue nationwide injunctions against the president’s executive orders. “You can tell how big of a deal it is by the way people react to it,” Tom Bevan said. “On the left, in particular, some of the folks reacting to this decision have lost their minds. I mean, its ‘the end of democracy, the end of the Constitution.’ It’s a little overwrought, but it does tell you this is a big, monumental decision.” “When you call a guy Hitler for nine years, you’re gonna run out of adjectives. They’re trying to express themselves,” Cannon responded. “But all these cases are going to be appealed. You could have different appellate courts making different decisions. It’s going to be a confusing hodgepodge of law, until each and every one of these cases either goes to the Supreme Court or the Supreme Court refuses to hear it.” *** After that, at minute 8:30, the gang looks at how the Democratic Party is responding to 33-year-old socialist Zohran Mamdani beating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Mayoral primary. “I don’t think Democrats in Arizona and Georgia and these swing districts want to be out there fielding questions and trying to defend those kinds of policies,” Bevan said. “What worries Democrats-and what Republicans are trying to exploit-is hanging this guy and his policies on the party nationally.” “Mayor Eric Adams is now running as an independent, but he’s a lifelong Democrat,” Cannon said. “It could be a fight for the soul of the Democratic Party-at least in New York City … Tom’s confident that if the Brandon Johnsons and Zohran Mamdanis become the face of the party, Democrats will lose national elections. But there’s a caveat-unless they win. And then America becomes a socialist country.” *** In the next segment, at minute 15, a new statistical analysis from Pew confirms how much President Trump improved his showing among minority voters in 2024, and this week’s “You Can’t Be Serious!” segment featuring the goofiest stories of the week. “This is an important study,” Tom Bevan explained. “This is Pew’s validated voter survey. So, they go back after the election and re-contact people who voted. This is not like exit polls … This is actual data that has been verified and validated by Pew.” “[Trump lost] 51–48 among Hispanic voters. Those are catastrophic numbers for Democrats,” he continued. “Among Hispanics with college degrees, Trump gained 26 points. Hispanic men in general: 20 points. Hispanic Catholics: 18 points. Just down the list-Asian voters, black voters, black men, naturalized citizens, even the younger vote, Republicans gained 17 points in the 30–39 age demographic. Jewish voters: 15 points. White Catholics: 15 points. I mean, it was just a total and complete shift across the board in favor of Donald Trump.” “The other way to look at this is the Republican Party has righted its ship,” Carl Cannon said. “It’s not just a white party anymore. It’s a party of working-class and rural people across the board. What motivates their base are class issues and economic issues-not some of these culture war issues.” “But this was a close election,” he added. “Yeah, you had all these shifts in the electorate. What did it mean? Donald Trump won by a point and a half or two points. He got a plurality — almost a majority.” *** After that, at minute 24, Emerson College pollster Spencer Kimball joins Andrew Walworth and Carl Cannon to discuss their most recent look at likely presidential candidates in 2028, and how Emerson fared predicting the results of the New York City’s ranked-choice mayoral race. “We looked smart on our show talking about Mamdani before he won-when Andrew Cuomo was still supposedly the favorite-because of your polling,” Carl Cannon told Kimball. “Eric Adams is very unpopular, but he’s the incumbent mayor,” Kimball explained. “But Cuomo pulls from the same base as Adams. So if both of them are running, it creates a path for Mamdani-unless the Republican, Curtis Sliwa, drops out. There are a lot of moving parts.” “In 2028, Vice President Vance is right now the heir apparent for the Republicans,” he also said. “We’ll see how that plays out, but he’s hovering around 50%. His biggest opponents would be Rubio and DeSantis out of Florida, both around 12%.” “On the Democratic side, the big news is Harris dropping out of that lead spot. She was hovering in the high 30s to low 40s nationally. Now she’s in the low teens,” he said. “Now it looks like the Democratic field is fairly wide open, and we’ll see who emerges.” “California Gov. Gavin Newsom is at 11%. He’s in the conversation-he’s part of the pack,” Kimball added. “But like on the Republican side, where it’s Vance way out in front, the Democrats are going to have to fight it out.” *** Finally, at minute 36, Andrew Walworth talks to RCP national correspondent Susan Crabtree about her new reporting on dual nationality political prisoners held in Tehran: “American Hostage Families Rattled After Strike on Iranian Prison” Will the Trump administration push for their release as part of a larger deal with Iran? “There are as many as six Americans that we know about currently held in Iran’s notorious Evin Prison,” Crabtree reported. “Now, these are legal permanent residents-they’re not citizens-but under current U.S. hostage law, they have all the same privileges as American citizens.” “The Israelis struck the front gate of Evin Prison on Monday. From what I understand, they didn’t strike the section where the hostages or political prisoners are held,” she explained. “That strike was apparently intended to send a symbolic message to the Iranian people. Evin Prison is known for holding political prisoners.” “Now the families are on pins and needles, waiting to see if the ceasefire holds, and they are advocating to President Trump, the State Department, and Sen. Marco Rubio to include their loved ones in any nuclear deal moving forward,” she said. “They are very concerned. They see the Israeli strike as irresponsible-given how emotional and precarious this moment is for the prisoners who’ve been held there for years. Striking the front gate might provoke a reaction.” *** Don’t miss a single episode of the RealClearPolitics weeknight radio show – subscribe at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
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