Friday on the RealClearPolitics podcast, Carl Cannon, Andrew Walworth, and RCP White House reporter Phil Wegmann discuss President Trump’s response to escalating protests in Iran, and the latest confrontations between ICE agents and protesters across the U.S. After that, RCP senior elections analyst Sean Trende joins the panel to explain the Supreme Court punting a decision on President Trump’s tariff regime and the latest developments in the battle over congressional redistricting ahead of the midterm elections. Plus, a review of California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s “State of the State” address this week and what it signals about his prospects in the 2028 Democratic primary. Finally, the panel rounds things out with their picks for the weekly “You Cannot Be Serious?!” roundup of entertaining headlines. You can listen to the show live each day at 11:00 a.m. on SiriusXM’s Megyn Kelly Channel 111 and then on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, and here on our website. *** The show opens with massive anti-government protests in Iran, and whether President Trump is prepared to follow up on his threat to use the U.S. military “real hard” if the regime violently cracks down on demonstrators. Does Trump have a plan, or is he just watching to see what happens like the rest of us? “That’s the thing about red lines: If you draw them, you occasionally have to act on them. That’s something President Obama learned with Syria,” Wegmann said about Trump. “We don’t know if he is just negotiating in public, or if this is a specific threat until he actually acts.” “What’s the mechanism for that? Religious fanatics in police departments are killing demonstrators in cities across the country; how is the U.S. military supposed to stop that?” Cannon wondered. “But you don’t want to say this is an idle boast; this is the president who bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. So you’d think he has the attention of Iran’s leaders.” “Maybe Trump was playing a little psy-ops here. I don’t think he’s really prepared to go in. I think they’re hoping that this regime falls the way Syria’s did,” Cannon said. *** After that, around minute 11, the discussion moves on to another ICE-involved shooting, this time of an alleged Venezuelan gang member in Portland, as the country is still trying to make sense of an officer-involved shooting on Wednesday in Minneapolis. “Republicans say there have been multiple attacks on ICE agents, using cars to block ICE operations… Democrats say she’s a mom of three who was protesting a policy that’s not popular in Minnesota,” Cannon explained. “Guess what? Both of those narratives could be true.” “It is a Rorschach test,” Wegmann agreed. “It’s going to be difficult for the administration to navigate these waters because it’s no longer a distant thing.” *** Next, 21 minutes into the show, RCP senior elections analyst Sean Trende joins the group to discuss why the Supreme Court punted a decision on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs and the latest developments in the bipartisan, nationwide congressional redistricting battle ahead of midterm elections later this year. “Congress has given the executive, for 150 years, varying degrees of power to set tariff rates. They’ve expanded it, they’ve taken it back. Now it’s supposed to require some type of emergency,” Trende explained. “The best argument they have is that this is a foreign policy issue. If the Court strikes these down, U.S. credibility is put at risk around the world. So in many ways, this case turns on whether the Court views it more as a domestic taxation issue or a foreign affairs issue.” “Florida is almost certainly going to redistrict unless something shocks us the way Indiana did. They’re likely to add between three and five House seats,” Trende also said. “What’s interesting nationally is that it hasn’t been a total wash. It tilts Republican, but not the tidal wave people expected. Part of that is a GOP failure to force redistricting in New Hampshire and Indiana. Part of it is Democrats pushing back harder than expected.” “Democrats need about four or five seats to flip the House. That’s very doable in a midterm. Unless redistricting nets Republicans ten or more seats-which depends on that Court case [on the Voting Rights Act]-I almost see no chance Democrats don’t take the House,” Trende predicted. *** Finally, around minute 40, the group reviews California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s final “State of the State” address last night and whether he can leverage this legacy into a successful bid for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. “We’ve run pieces at RCP on how California’s middle class has been hollowed out-by poverty, homelessness, high taxes. Critics point to fires and earthquakes. Governors can’t do much about earthquakes, but the response to fires hasn’t been great. Homelessness defies solution, at least under Democratic approaches that just spend more money,” Cannon explained. “So Newsom isn’t being defensive-he’s declaring victory.” “I’m curious whether Newsom can go to voters across the country and say people are still really happy in California,” Wegmann quipped. “Because critics will respond: the people who stayed are happy-but millions left.” *** Plus, at minute 43, the group gives their picks for the weekly “You Cannot Be Serious?!” roundup of entertaining headlines. *** Don’t miss a single episode of the RealClearPolitics weeknight radio show – subscribe at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
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