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Published On: Fri, May 23rd, 2025

Richard Porter: Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Will Make Midterms Harder for Democrats

RCP contributor Richard Porter joins Tom Bevan on Thursday’s edition of the RealClearPolitics podcast for a deep dive on President Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful” budget reconciliation package, which passed in the House by a single vote overnight. “This is the opening bell for the midterm elections. This bill encompasses really the entire scope of Trump’s economic policy agenda,” Porter said. “Every single Democrat lined up against the waitress at the corner diner and said she ought to be paying taxes on her tips.” “In states like Illinois, where two Democratic members of Congress are running for an open Senate seat, they’re going to have to run defending a vote that would have increased taxes significantly.” “There are 13 congressional districts where Donald Trump won, and the seats are controlled by Democrats. You can bet this vote will be central to the Trump campaign’s focus on winning more seats in the midterm election,” he said. “It includes: Tax cuts for seniors. Tax cuts for folks working for tips. An increased deduction for people in blue states for their state and local taxes (SALT). A reduction in regulations. A foundation for further cuts through the appropriations process to reduce spending and the deficit. It also removes illegal aliens from Medicaid and food stamps, and imposes work requirements for able-bodied males to access those benefits. These are all very popular policies.” “The only new tax cuts are for waitresses-removing the tax on tips-and for seniors, by reducing the tax on Social Security,” Porter said. “When they talk about cutting Medicaid for the most vulnerable, they don’t say who those people are. Well, they’re talking about people who are in this country illegally. They’re not Americans, not supposed to be here.” “This bill sets an upper bound on the appropriations process. There’s a laser focus on using the DOJ’s cuts and working them through the baseline. That process is still ongoing.” “This bill doesn’t foreclose further cuts through appropriations,” he said. “That’s been the message to Republican members: This is the budget outline. It gets the tax cuts through-the pro-growth, pro-populist agenda the president promised. We can address further spending cuts in appropriations.” “Expect more to come-especially in discretionary spending,” Porter said. “Within Senate rules, this bill can only cut against mandatory programs. You’ll see discretionary cuts come summer and fall.” “The president has now called for a balanced budget, for the first time in his 10 years on the public stage. People recognize the debt is a problem. This is the opening shot in a battle that will carry through the midterms,” Porter said.
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