“Facing South Florida” host Jim DeFede on CBS Miami sizes up the race for governor on both sides of the aisle as the state completes its primary process today. Pollster Sean Freeder, the director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, reports that the key indicator for the general election will be the margin of victory Republican frontrunner Byron Donalds has over insurgent outsider James Fishback. “Fishback has done particularly well with young Republican voters, as far as we can tell, and with people for whom the Trump endorsement that Donalds received maybe doesn’t matter as much,” he said. “If we’re looking at maybe a 6% showing from Fishback, that would be very disappointing for their campaign, but that might be good news for Donalds’ campaign.” “On the other hand, if Fishback is closer to something like 15 or even 20%… that could be big trouble for Donalds going into November.” <\/p>\n
JIM DEFEDE: Let’s jump ahead to the race for governor. And, you know, what we’ve seen in the race for governor is one of the more interesting races. I had a chance to talk to Sean Freeder from the University of North Florida’s research lab about what some of the polling in that race shows. The marquee statewide contest for Republicans on Tuesday is the race to replace Ron DeSantis. Polls suggest Congressman Byron Donalds will be the Republican nominee for governor. He has raised more than $ 100 million and has the endorsement of Donald Trump. But with expectations so high for Donalds, can he possibly meet them? And what about the rest of the field? Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins and former House Speaker Paul Renner have been slogging along. And then there is the most controversial candidate of all, James Fishback, who has tapped into a growing hate for Israel among young Republicans that closely mimics what you hear from Tucker Carlson. He has also repeatedly referred to Donalds as a slave and a DEI Republican. Where will he finish on Tuesday? I recently talked about the race with pollster Sean Freeder, the director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. SEAN FREEDER: As you mentioned, Fishback, who kind of came out of nowhere as a candidate, he doesn’t have experience in elected office. He’s made a lot of controversial statements. He’s done particularly well with young Republican voters, as far as we can tell, and with people for whom the Trump endorsement that Donalds received maybe doesn’t matter as much. So, you know, if we’re looking at maybe a 6% showing from Fishback, that would be very disappointing for their campaign, and that might be good news for Donalds’ campaign. On the other hand, if Fishback is closer to something like 15 or even 20%, it’s very hard to say what those numbers might look like. But if it’s a higher number like that, I think that could be big trouble for Donalds going into November, because I don’t necessarily think that Fishback stops speaking negatively and tries to knit the party back together. JIM DEFEDE: On the Democratic side, David Jolly, the former Republican congressman who became an independent before becoming a Democrat, is running against state Representative Dotie Joseph, who got into the race late after another Democrat, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, dropped out after being diagnosed with cancer. If Jolly does win, his biggest obstacle is likely to be money. He has raised a small fraction of what Donalds has raised. SEAN FREEDER: National Democrats are probably loath to get involved, one, because they don’t know if it’s necessarily worth investing in Florida. If the numbers were to look anything like the 2022 midterm election, it’s certainly not worth them investing. But again, there’s reasons to think this is a closer race this time. They also might not want to get involved monetarily too much in this race because Jolly, as a former Republican, the party at the national level is already trying to distance themselves at least a little bit from the pretty intense fight between those on their left flank and those coming from the middle of the base. Donalds has a huge advantage in terms of the money that he can burn on advertising. That gives him the opportunity to get his message out there. So I think really the question then becomes: How compelling of a message can each camp craft? And I think Donalds does have some vulnerabilities that the Jolly campaign can take advantage of.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n