CNN data analyst Harry Enten breaks down new prediction market data showing Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is heading for defeat in the Republican primary. “Look at this, chance that Massie is, in fact, a Kentucky Four GOP nominee. It has been falling considerably over the last ten days, according to the Kalshi prediction market,” Enten said on Monday. “It was 71 percent ten days ago. Look at where that number is now. It’s 44 percent. So, chances more likely than not, though it is very close, very close, that Massie will, in fact, go down to defeat. But again, we’re just going to have to wait and see the votes getting cast and counted because this is quite close.” “Any time that an incumbent member of Congress goes down, he has done something seriously wrong in the minds of the voters. And in this case, if Massie goes down, it is that he crossed Donald John Trump,” Enten said. <\/p>\n
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, today, the U.S. secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, is going to Kentucky on a political campaign trip. This is virtually unprecedented. No one can really remember something like this, especially during war time. Why is he going there? He’s going to campaign against an incumbent Republican congressman, Thomas Massie, who, among other things, pushed for the release of the Epstein files. With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. So, the Trump political world descending on Kentucky, trying to unseat Thomas Massie tomorrow in this Republican primary. What are the prediction markets saying? How is this race going? HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: To put it mildly, I don’t think that Donald Trump likes Thomas Massie. BERMAN: Yes. ENTEN: And if you look at the prediction markets, it looks like they may get their man. They may get their man. Look at this, chance that Massie is, in fact, a Kentucky Four GOP nominee. It has been falling considerably over the last ten days, according to the Kalshi prediction market. Look at this. It was 71 percent ten days ago. Look at where that number is now. It’s 44 percent. So, chances more likely than not, though it is very close, very close, that Massie will, in fact, go down to defeat. But again, we’re just going to have to wait and see the votes getting cast and counted because this is quite close. But any time that an incumbent member of Congress goes down, he has done something seriously wrong in the minds of the voters. And in this case, if Massie goes down, it is that he crossed Donald John Trump. BERMAN: OK. And I think one of the things the prediction markets might be seeing is what happened a couple days ago in Louisiana, where the incumbent Republican, Bill Cassidy, didn’t just lose, he lost badly in a Republican primary where the president endorsed an opponent. ENTEN: Yes. I think one of the things that people who are putting their money where their mouths are seeing is seeing exactly what Johnny B. said, which was, saw what happened in — saw what happened in Louisiana on Saturday. And I went back, and this is sort of just going back through the archives to see how bad Bill Cassidy — he got 25 percent of the vote, OK. I went back and I looked at every single, non-inpointed — non- appointed senator. This, in my mind, was the worst primary showing ever, at least since the end of World War II. That is how Bill Cassidy, how badly Bill Cassidy did. he did worse than every single one, getting 25 percent of the vote in a — for a senator in a primary. It’s literally unheard of. And that is because, of course, Donald Trump endorsed against this guy. BERMAN: Look, if you can find a different case of this, Harry looked at every single one and thinks it’s the worst. Send us, you know, email — ENTEN: Send it. BERMAN: Yes, tweet it — tweet us. ENTEN: Tweet us. BERMAN: If you — is Twitter still a thing. I don’t know. ENTEN: You’re X-ing us, I guess. BERMAN: In any case. So, President Trump endorsed an opponent here. How does President Trump do in general when he endorses a Republican primary? ENTEN: You know, we’ve quoted the movie “Good Burger” every single time basically when we’ve done this. When, in fact, you go against President Trump, you go in the grinder. And you could just see this, times Trump endorses have won in GOP primaries. It’s about 95 percent each of the last four cycles. Now, I will note, you know, sometimes he endorses and there’s no real challenger. But even in those cases, the challengers to the incumbent have won a majority of the time as well. And one of the key reasons why that is, right, is you look at Trump’s approval rating within the GOP. Twenty-first century, own party approval. At this point in term two, he’s still at 83 percent. That’s more popular than Obama was with Democrats. Way more popular than George W. Bush was with Republicans back in 2006. So, the power of a Trump endorsement is still sky high. And we’ll see tomorrow if that happens with Thomas Massie, going down. BERMAN: We’ll be watching that very, very closely. Harry Enten, thank you very much. ENTEN: Thank you, my friend. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n