CNN’s Harry Enten reports on the latest polls ahead of Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens. El-Sayed goes into the August 4 primary ahead by more than 10 points in the RCP Average.

HARRY ENTEN: Yeah, I think that tomorrow Abdul El-Sayed will deliver the biggest blow so far against the establishment of the Democratic Party, because he is the heavy favorite going into tomorrow. Just take a look at the prediction-market odds for his chance to be the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee. Abdul El-Sayed-look at this. He’s up to a 98% chance, according to the Kalshi prediction markets, way up like a rocket compared to where he was on April 3, when he had just a 28% chance a few months ago. The bottom line is this: You look at all the data that is out there, Abdul El-Sayed is the very heavy favorite going into tomorrow. Of course, he is backed by a lot of folks on the left wing of the Democratic Party. At this point, as I said at the beginning, he looks tomorrow to deliver the biggest blow so far against the establishment wing of the Democratic Party. SARA SIDNER: Give us some sense of the amount of anger that is really there-not just at a particular person, but at incumbents and people who are the establishment. HARRY ENTEN: Yes, Sara. I think this is part of a larger story within the Democratic Party, right? That is why tomorrow is so key for understanding where the Democratic Party is right now. You can see it nationally. What do Democrats want? Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters who think the party needs at least major changes-look at this. In 2022, it was just 33%. Look where it is now. A clear majority of Democratic voters, or those who lean toward the Democratic Party-57%-believe that the party needs at least major changes. No wonder we’ve seen incumbents go down to defeat in the House of Representatives. No wonder what we’ve seen so far this Democratic primary season is the establishment losing and losing and losing again in key races. And no wonder Abdul El-Sayed is favored tomorrow, because Democratic Party voters at this point are so upset with the establishment that they’re saying, Anything else, please. Abdul El-Sayed, who just eight years ago, during Trump’s first term, got blown out running for Michigan governor against Gretchen Whitmer, tomorrow is the heavy favorite. Simply put, the Democratic Party is looking for something new, and they are looking to go against Haley Stevens most likely tomorrow, who, of course, is a sitting congresswoman. SARA SIDNER: I do want to ask you just how motivated Democrats are. Where’s the energy? How motivated are they to go out and vote? Because numbers matter. HARRY ENTEN: Yes, numbers matter. Who in the Democratic Party is motivated to turn out and vote this election season? The energy right now is on the left wing of the Democratic Party, where Abdul El-Sayed is. Just take a look here. Democrats who are extremely motivated to vote-look at this: 80%, four in five of those who identify as very liberal, say they are extremely motivated to turn out and vote. Compare that with all others within the Democratic Party: a significantly lower share, just three in five, 59%. Abdul El-Sayed kind of brings it all together as an outsider who comes from the populist, progressive wing of the party. That’s why I think tomorrow he is the heavy favorite. If he does win, as I said at the beginning of the segment, it would be the biggest blow against the Democratic establishment so far-a culmination of all the factors we’ve seen this primary season.

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