CNN’s Enten: Democratic Socialist Primary Revolt Is “A New Tea Party, But It’s On Steroids”
CNN data analyst Harry Enten argues Democrats are facing a “new Tea Party” moment with a wave of incumbent primary defeats by Democratic socialist challengers.
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: This summer we have seen Democratic incumbents losing in primaries in ways we just haven’t seen before. What, if any, historical precedent is there for this? With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. So, if you squint a little bit — HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Yes. BERMAN: I know this is somewhat unprecedented, but we’ve seen something a little bit like it before. ENTEN: We have seen something like this before. You have to go back 16 years. Remember, it was that Republican Tea Party wave of 2010. I would argue the Democratic version of it is a new Tea Party, but it’s on steroids. Why do I say that? Well, let’s just start off with the fact, approve of their own party in Congress. Republicans in July of 2010, it was 52 percent. A very low percentage. But at least it was north of 50 percent. Look at where we are now with Democrats in terms of them approving their own members of Congress. It’s actually below 50 percent. Democrats dislike their party more than Republicans did during the Tea Party wave of 2010. Just 47 percent of Democrats now approve of their own party in Congress. As I said, it’s a new Tea Party, but it’s a Tea Party on steroids. BERMAN: And we’re seeing the impact it’s having on some Democratic incumbents. ENTEN: Absolutely the case. You know, if you look at the number of Democratic incumbents, House incumbents who have gone down to defeat, it’s actually higher in the House than it was back in 2010. House incumbents who went — who lost primaries for Republicans back in 2010, it was one, two. You can count it on one hand. But in 2026, so far, it’s already five. It’s already five. You have to use up all the digits on your one hand. It’s five so far. Even if you include Lisa Murkowski going down to defeat in a 2010 Senate primary. Of course, she then went on to win as a write-in candidate in the fall. And you include the Senate. That only gets you to three. Still, we’re dealing with more defeats right now in Congress for Democrats, those Democratic incumbents than you even saw during the Tea Party wave for Republicans back in 2010. BERMAN: And the prediction markets think it might get even worse. ENTEN: It could get even worse. In fact, it’s likely to get even worse. So, if you look at the Kalshi prediction mark and the chance that six House Democrats go down to defeat, lose their primary in 2026, this number has consistently, over the last week or so, been hovering 80 percent, 90 percent. And when we talk about history books, the history books, right. If, in fact, six House Democrats went down to defeat in 2026, it would be by far it would be the largest number, it would be the largest number in a post-redistricting cycle for Democrats in, get this, over 50 years. That’s why I got this picture of the Tea Party on your screen right now because, you know what, it’s 250, but also it’s a new Tea Party for Democrats. BERMAN: I was just in Boston. I saw where this all took place. All right, and we’re talking about some of the specific races where incumbents might be in trouble. ENTEN: Yes, I mean there are a number of races where they might be in trouble. How about Missouri One, right? There’s a possibility. How about a Michigan 13? That’s a real possibility in terms of a House Democrat going down to defeat. And then in Connecticut One as well, another real possibility. And this is just what we’ve been seeing over and over and over again. We have been seeing that these incumbents have been going down to defeat. And it looks like there are going to be plenty more, at least if you listen to the Kalshi prediction markets, where people put their money where their mouths are. BERMAN: Could be an historic summer, Harry Enten. A lot of news this morning. We’ll be right back.
