Former CFR head Richard Haass said today on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe” that he is cautiously optimistic as Israel and Lebanon begin a ten-day ceasefire, resolving one of the stumbling blocks between Iran and the US more than a week into their two-week ceasefire. “At the risk of sounding optimistic, which isn’t something I ever do, I think there’s a logic that neither side has a rationale to escalate,” he said. “If Iran escalates, what does it get them? Their energy facilities are vulnerable, and it doesn’t help their economy. If we escalate, Iran still has the option of attacking the energy facilities of every one of its neighbors.” “So I think, in a funny sort of way, we’ve run out of targets, and the logic of this war is increasingly gone.” “So I think there is a chance-a chance-that diplomacy works,” he said. “But you’ve got three big variables: Donald Trump, who knows who the leadership is of Iran, and Bibi Netanyahu.”

RICHARD HAASS: In terms of just the narrow thing on Israel and Lebanon? Always good when you see these sorts of things. But it’s an enormous-but yeah, the major actor, Hezbollah, has been left outside, not involved. And the issue forever has not been Lebanon. It’s been that Hezbollah has been and remains, if you will, a ‘state within a state,’ right? That the Lebanese government has been unable-or at times unwilling-to really take them on. So again, this is a step in the right direction, but quite honestly, it’s far, far, far removed from the real issue here. And this is one of the stumbling blocks. In terms of what the president said, nice to see the optimism. Two big issues-the Strait-and I think there we’ve made real progress. The blockade has put pressure on Iran’s economy, and Iran’s economy is their Achilles’ heel. It was before the war, and now the economy is in much worse shape. And I think Iran was not counting on, if you will, getting counter-blockaded. It thought it could close the Strait and inflict pain on the world. And by putting on the blockade, we’ve now put pain on Iran. And I don’t think they were prepared for that. And they don’t have the ability to withstand that for long. So I actually think that’s a major step in the right direction. In terms of the nuclear issue, hard to know the details. I find it very difficult to imagine we can get the whole thing negotiated. Could we get a framework where we-the United States and Iran-agree to negotiate some ceilings on Iranian capabilities? It sounds like the old Obama agreement. It could be a latter-day version of it. Possibly. But I think both sides-let me say one last thing-I think there’s a logic now, at the risk of sounding optimistic, which isn’t something I ever do. I think there’s a logic that neither side has a rationale to escalate. If Iran escalates, what does it get them? Their energy facilities are vulnerable, and it doesn’t help their economy. If we escalate, Iran still has the option of attacking the energy facilities of every one of its neighbors. So I think, in a funny sort of way, we’ve run out of targets, and the logic of this war is increasingly gone. So I think there is a chance-chance-that diplomacy works. But you’ve got three big variables: Donald Trump, who knows who the leadership is of Iran, and Bibi Netanyahu. And right now, I think that’s the biggest question.

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