Tuesday on the RealClearPolitics podcast, RCP co-founder Tom Bevan and elections analyst Sean Trende join Andrew Walworth to forecast the results of today’s primary elections in South Carolina and Wisconsin, the battle over securing voter rolls, and the fallout from Senate Republicans publishing Dr. Anthony Fauci’s private messages from the COVID era. Hoover Institution scholar Peter Berkowitz joins the program to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East, as Israel rejects the latest U.S.-backed peace plan for Gaza, Saudi Arabia forming an alliance with Turkey and Pakistan instead of joining the Abraham Accords, and the shocking story that President Trump had to change planes for security reasons during his latest visit to Turkey. Listen live weekdays at 11:00 a.m. Eastern on SiriusXM’s Megyn Kelly Channel 111, or on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or other platforms.

00:00 – Opening: Sean Trende, Walworth, and Bevan start with Darline Graham Nordone’s chances to replace her late brother in the GOP primary for South Carolina Senate. “In primaries there is a bigger margin of error for polling than in general elections — partly because we don’t know the composition of the electorate,” Trende said. RCP Average: South Carolina Senate Republican Special Primary “There may be an anti-Graham vote, or just people who aren’t crazy about passing a Senate seat along like an heirloom, despite the fact President Trump endorsed her,” Bevan added. *** 02:58 – Can Francesca Hong Hold On? Sean Trende says DSA candidate Francesca Hong remains the favorite in Wisconsin’s Democratic governor’s primary despite sustained attacks. RCP Average: 2026 Wisconsin Governor – Democratic Primary “It’s a little frantic on the establishment side, and that probably helps Hong get across the finish line here,” Tom Bevan says. “At this point the establishment has to be sitting there thinking, like, okay, we just have to hope that these polls are as bad as the ones were in Michigan and that this is not reflecting reality, if she’s up by double digits.” *** 05:42 – The Fight Over Voter Rolls The panel discusses concerns about inaccurate voter registrations and the tension between cleansing voter rolls and avoiding legitimate voter disenfranchisement. “The people who are concerned about the disenfranchisement thing don’t do themselves any favors by denying that there really is some potential-not millions of people like people imagine, but enough that in a very close election it could tip a result,” Trende said. Bevan argues greater voter-roll maintenance and scrutiny would help restore public confidence in elections, “which both sides don’t have enough of right now.” *** 12:13 – What Fauci’s Texts Reveal The group focuses on Anthony Fauci’s newly published text messages and how much he damaged long-term trust in public-health institutions. “Once again, he’s caught telling his colleagues something in private and telling the American people something different in public,” Bevan said. “The sin was not being honest.” Read: Fauci Made Mistakes, But His Persecution Is a Travesty – Margaret Sullivan, The Guardian “It was a tough situation with a novel virus, but they were pathologically incapable of admitting what they didn’t know, that there was uncertainty,” Trende said. “Have some epistemic humility about things … By the 30th change to the public guidance, just admit that you don’t know.” *** 19:11 – Netanyahu Rejects Gaza Peace Plan Peter Berkowitz joins the program to discuss the disagreement between Israel and the U.S. over the new peace plan for Gaza, the Saudis signing a defense agreement with Turkey and Pakistan instead of joining the U.S.-backed Abraham Accords, and why American public opinion is turning against Israel. “The plan had an ambiguity: Just when would the disarmament take place? But Israel was clear back in October: disarmament first, withdrawal later,” Berkowitz explained. “The only conceivable person who could defeat him in the election and become prime minister-is right now Gadi Eisenkot,” the only successor will be a center-right Israeli who will at least maintain Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security policies. So it will present us with a clear test-is opposition to Israel in the West anti-Netanyahu or anti-Semitism?” “The Iranians have managed to alienate powers within the Middle East. When Saudi Arabia and Turkey and Pakistan make a pact … they are not preparing for an attack from Jordan,” Berkowitz said. “We’ll see what happens the next time the Iranians launch missiles at Saudi Arabia.” *** 28:45 – Trump’s Air Force One Switcheroo The panel considers reports that Trump was secretly moved onto a different aircraft because of a credible Iranian threat. Berkowitz calls the maneuver highly unusual, while the hosts debate whether the story is primarily a Beltway sensation or simply an example of the extraordinary measures sometimes required to protect a president. “The Washington Beltway press loves this kind of story,” Tom Bevan said, “Most Americans don’t care, but they were the decoys-they were on that plane!” *** 38:03 – Hunter Biden on Tucker The hosts react to Hunter Biden’s recent interview with Tucker Carlson, particularly their areas of agreement on Trump, Israel, and support for figures like Candace Owens and Thomas Massie. Watch: Hunter Biden Full Interview With Tucker Carlson “During the 2020 campaign, Tucker was the guy who interviewed Tony Bobulinski and sort of broke that story. Was that an Israeli plant?” Bevan asked. “To sit there with Hunter Biden and try and rewrite history, it’s bizarre. I don’t understand what Tucker’s doing other than he’s just convinced that somehow Israel’s responsible for everything.” “I think they don’t want Hunter Biden going on 60 Minutes,” Sean Trende said. “Going on Tucker is easily dismissable.” *** 42:23 – Who Gets Credit for Falling Crime? The episode ends with a debate over declining homicide and crime rates and competing claims of political credit and these two articles featured this morning on RCP: Read: The Good News Trump Won’t Mention – Paul Krugman, Substack Read: Krugman and the Politics of Falling Crime – John Lott, RealClearPolitics “Everybody agrees that’s true. And it’s just a matter of, like, well, who do you give the credit to?” Bevan said. “I always hate blaming it on poverty, because it ignores the 99% of poor people who don’t commit crimes, which I think is the real story,” Trende said. “It’s a complex endeavor, and no one should claim credit for it. But of course they will, because it’s politics.”

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