Wednesday on the RealClearPolitics podcast, Richard Porter joins Carl Cannon and Tom Bevan to discuss the Senate race in Maine and whether the latest scandal is enough to force Democratic candidate Graham Platner out, plus why the betting odds look so different from the polling averages when looking forward to 2028. Peter Berkowitz joins the show to discuss the apparent breakdown of negotiations with Iran and the political situation in Israel. They also discuss the question of age limits and gerontocracy as Sen. Mitch McConnell’s health remains an open question, and Richard Porter’s suggestion that the president create a “Trump Peace Prize.” Listen live weekdays at 11:00 a.m. Eastern on SiriusXM’s Megyn Kelly Channel 111, or on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or other platforms.

00:00 – Opening: Platner’s Last Stand Cannon, Bevan, and Richard Porter discuss the continuing fallout from Graham Platner’s latest scandal and whether he will withdraw from the Maine Senate race. Does the Democratic Party have someone who can take his place? What if Platner refuses to leave? He’s got until Monday to withdraw from the ballot before Democrats are stuck with him as their nominee. “He kind of has nothing to lose,” Bevan suggested. “If he goes away, he’s not just done as a political candidate. There’s no side job or appointment waiting for him; he’s done done. So he might just try and ride it out.” Watch: Maine Democratic Party Director: Platner Must Drop Out “The chairman of the Democratic Party in Maine seems to have skipped a step. She says Graham Platner’s team still has its thumb on the scale. She’s talking like he’s already agreed to get out and they’re trying to be kingmakers. Maybe step a little bit more carefully; he may not get out if he feels cornered,” Cannon said. *** 13:35 – Why Don’t Polls Match Betting Odds? The panel compares early 2028 Democratic presidential polling with betting-market odds. Polls show Kamala Harris leading, while Polymarket odds favor Gavin Newsom, AOC, and Jon Ossoff. Is this anything more than name recognition, hype, and untested assumptions? “By the way, it’s not that way on the Republican side. JD Vance is ahead in the polls. He’s ahead in the betting markets. It’s a much more stable situation there,” Bevan added. 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination: RCP Polling Average | Polymarket Betting Odds 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination: RCP Polling Average | Polymarket Betting Odds “What people are doing when they’re placing a bet is they’re looking ahead, and they’re factoring in how the campaigns are going to be run, what’s likely to be at issue, and who’s going to be able to come through it,” Porter said. Cannon concluded: “Here’s the argument in favor of Polymarket. I can sum it up in three words: President Howard Dean… I don’t think the horse-race polls at this point are much more than name ID. But Polymarket hasn’t been tested either.” *** 19:07 – Trump Giving Up on Iran Negotiations? Peter Berkowitz joins the show to discuss President Trump declaring the Iran ceasefire “over” and that continued negotiations are a “waste of time.” Is this just another negotiating tactic, or is the war back on? “In addition to saying that he would bomb again tonight, the president has also threatened to reimpose a blockade on Iranian shipping, and he’s threatened to finally seize Kharg Island,” Berkowitz said. “Is the MOU dead? Some of us thought it was dead on arrival,” said Berkowitz. “It asked of the IRGC things which the IRGC could not give and remain the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” Watch: Trump: As Far As I’m Concerned, Iran Ceasefire Is Over Watch: Trump: “We Knocked Out A Piece Of Kharg Island Last Night,” “We May Take Over Kharg Island” “I think he’s creating that sort of ambiguity. But I think at the end of the day, he does actually want there to be some peace here,” Porter added. “I’m skeptical that what we’re seeing unfolding is part of a master plan. I agree that Trump’s approach is sowing confusion,” Berkowitz said. “Even if this is a plan, even if the president is playing three- or four-dimensional chess, we have to say that this is exacting very significant costs. It’s one thing to keep your enemies off balance. It’s another thing to keep your friends, allies, and partners off balance.” *** 30:20 – Is Netanyahu on the Way Out? The panel also looks at the political situation in Israel, where Berkowitz says Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition is facing a tipping point over judicial issues, military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, and the threat of renewed war with Iran. Watch: Netanyahu Asks U.S. Not To Sell F-35 To Turkey: “Regime Infected By Muslim Brotherhood” That “Chants Death To America” “His domestic political situation has taken a turn for the worse since we spoke last,” Berkowitz said. “Meanwhile, Hamas’ situation is parallel to the IRGC. Hamas has no other reason for being than to wage war against Israel.” *** 33:13 – Where’s Mitch McConnell? The panel looks at reports that Sen. Mitch McConnell has been hospitalized for three weeks, and whether aging politicians should remain in office when health issues interfere with public duties. “The current governor of Kentucky, Democrat Andy Beshear, apparently sent a letter this morning to Mitch McConnell’s office saying that he needs to be transparent,” Bevan reported. “Should we know more about what’s going on?” Richard Porter argues leaders should voluntarily pass the baton before they get to this point, while Tom and Carl compare McConnell’s situation to broader debates about age limits and gerontocracy. “I just think that there ought to be a culture in which people recognize that they are not essential, and that a gerontocracy is not a good thing for a country that wants to be young and vital,” he said. “I don’t know that we need a firm age limit, but people need to know when it’s time to get off the stage, and they don’t,” Cannon added. “What about 78 for Senate and White House, and maybe 88 for political writers?” *** 40:05 – Why Not a Trump Peace Prize? The episode ends with Richard Porter’s new column suggesting President Trump should use some of his recently earned money to encourage greatness by creating new prizes, such as the “Trump Peace Prize.” Richard Porter’s new column: Mr. President, Buy Some Happiness

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